“We are not engaged in “strategic competition” as the standard inside-the-beltway lingo would have it, but in reality we are in fact in Phase Zero of a brewing multi-theater war, with our enemies well along in their efforts to shape the battlefield and build weapons/munitions,” says Andrew A. Michita.
In an important Twitter thread, Andrew A. Michita – Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative – warned that the Western world is in a “strategic slumber” even as the threat from the Axis of Dictatorships” rises.
I encourage you to read the thread below:
🧵I have written repeatedly about the threat the "Axis of Dictatorships" (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) poses to the United States and its allies in multiple theaters. I'm back from Europe some 11 months now and I worry about the lack of urgency in DC on this issue. 1/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
I submit that the world is today more volatile than at any point since the end of the Cold War. The ongoing realignment by smaller powers we see today is laying the foundations for what are likely to become wartime coalitions. The old verities of power politics are back. 2/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
I also submit that the last 30 years of overseas contingency operations, GWOT, etc. have not only shrunk and reformatted the US military, but also reduced our defense industrial base and that of our allies to a point where we lack the capacity to produce at speed and scale. 3/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
We are not engaged in "strategic competition" as the standard inside-the-beltway lingo would have it, but in reality we are in fact in Phase Zero of a brewing multi-theater war, with our enemies well along in their efforts to shape the battlefield and build weapons/munitions. 4/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
The so-called "peace dividend" has lured the West into strategic slumber, and we still seem unable (unwilling?) to wake up to the reality of how unstable the international system has become, with imploding regional power balances and our adversaries' attacking our interests. 5/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
We speak in normative terms about the "rules-based order" at a time when we should speak in concrete down-to-earth language of geostrategy, geoeconomics and hard power. Until we do, our enemies will remain convinced that the "correlation of forces" is shifting in their favor.6/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) August 23, 2024
The world is getting more and more dangerous, putting freedom and democracy at serious risk. We must rise to the occasion by building up our military strength and demonstrating resolve in the face of intimidation by the authoritarian powers.
Spencer Fernando