Ideally, rebuilding the Canadian Armed Forces would include purchasing from allied nations. But if Canada had to do it all on its own, there are pre-existing domestic capabilities that can realistically be expanded upon.
In a previous article, we examined what Canada can learn from Poland regarding building up our military. The day before, we discussed the importance of Canadians embracing a ‘great power’ mindset.
Today, we’ll continue the shift from a motivational focus to a more granular focus as we consider the following question:
If Canada had to rebuild its military without any outside assistance, how would we achieve this?
What I mean by lacking outside assistance is a scenario in which Canada is completely cut off from the global arms trade, and thus is unable to purchase equipment from allies.
No F-35s.
No foreign-made drones.
No LAVs, IFVs, or tanks built elsewhere.
While this scenario is unlikely (even in the event of a total break in relations with the United States – which is also quite unlikely – Canada would retain economic and military connections with most of Europe), it is important to consider worst-case scenarios because preparing for those scenarios builds the kind of resilience that Canada needs right now.
So, let’s pretend Canada finds ourselves facing the following situation:
- We are cut off from the global arms trade.
- Our trade with the United States has fallen significantly.
- The United States has left NATO, repudiated NORAD and has openly stated that it will not defend us in the case of invasion.
- Europe is engulfed in conflict, and thus unable to help us.
- Russia and China are preparing an operation to take some Canadian Arctic territory by force, and intelligence officials estimate such an operation will be launched in two years.
- The Canadian Parliament – led by a Grand Coalition of the Conservatives & Liberals – allocates $70 billion dollars for the jumpstarting of a strong Canadian domestic defence industry that will put us on a war footing within the two years preceding a likely invasion of the North.
How should that money be spent?
Which Canadian companies should we invest in to build up the defence sector?
How should we go about acquiring technology we don’t currently possess?
These are the questions we’ll look at today.
To start with, we’ll look at the most contentious issue upfront: What would Canada do about foreign-owned production capabilities within our country? For example, General Dynamics Land Systems Canada (GDLS-C) and Colt Canada are both subsidiaries of American companies.
GDLS-C produces LAV 700, LAV 6.0, LAV II, and LAV III vehicles, while Colt Canada produces the C20, MRR, LSW, and Eagle.
The factories are in Canada, and the workers are Canadian, but the intellectual property is American and the factories are American-owned.
The best way around this would be for the Canadian government to set aside $10 billion of the overall $70 billion budget to compensate private companies for the nationalization of foreign-owned military production facilities in Canada. The compensation would include the purchasing of licenses.
If such compensation was refused, however, the Canadian government would need to find an alternative. Part of that alternative would be to hire all the laid-off workers when the US subsidiary leaves, and then take possession of the factories. If we didn’t have the intellectual property, we could (as discussed in detail here), get other Canadian companies (within a larger Crown Corporation for National Defence) to build prototypes. For example, Putting a 105mm gun on armoured vehicles is not all too complex compared to other areas of military production, and it would be feasible to retool existing factories to produce such vehicles.
So, the first choice would be to nationalize and compensate, while the next best would be to hire all displaced workers and use the facilities to produce Canadian new designs.
For the purposes of this article, we will assume that nationalization & compensation goes through.
And with that, we’ll look at what Canada can produce right now.
Ground forces
The aforementioned General Dynamics Land Systems Canada (GDLS-C) in London, Ontario currently produces multiple variants of Light Armoured Vehicles, along with the Eagle Light Tactical Vehicle.
The government could sign a contract with a fully Canadian-owned & renamed Canadian Land Systems to increase LAV production by 300% and develop a variant with a 105mm cannon to provide direct fire support.
The government could also work with Canadian companies to build up vehicle part supply chains to replace imports.
When it comes to weapons production, the government could transform Colt Canada into Canadian Arsenal Works, and ramp up small arms production by 500%.
The government would also expand Canadian Arsenal Works to produce mortars and recoilless rifles.
To rapidly expand Canada’s fleet of armoured or partially armoured vehicles, the government could contract Canadian-owned DEW Engineering to expand their production of armour kits. The government could purchase vehicles from Canadian dealerships – large trucks and SUVs – and begin up-armouring them.
And since DEW Engineering also produces field shelters and logistics support equipment, the government could contract the company to start building fortifications and prefab military structures in the North, to ensure logistical support for the tens of thousands of troops we would need to station there.
As you can see, it is well within the realm of possibility for Canada to produce guns, light armoured vehicles, and armour at scale with a reasonable investment in our pre-existing domestic capacity.
Shipbuilding
Fending off an attack by Russia and China in the North will require a strong navy. And while it’s unrealistic to think we could build a huge navy in just two years, we could increase the scale and pace of production significantly.
When it comes to shipbuilding, Canada is already well-positioned.
Irving Shipbuilding & Seaspan Shipyards give us shipbuilding capacity on the East and West coasts respectively.
To start, the government would invest in quadrupling the number of people who directly work on building ships. Commercial shipyards would be converted for military production.
Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel construction would be restarted and expanded in the East, while Seaspan Shipyards in Vancouver would be given a large contract to produce Joint Support Ships and Coast Guard Vessels.
Victoria Shipards in Victoria, BC and Irving Shipyards in Halifax, Nova Scotia would begin construction of drone ships – inspired by Ukraine’s highly successful drone ship fleet that has helped to decimate Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Victoria Shipyards would also be tasked with beginning production of a domestically-designed submarine based on Canada’s Victoria Class subs. While the Victoria Class subs are not ideal, there is one big benefit they provide:
We already possess them, and can thus use them to inspire domestically-produced subs.
This would jumpstart Canada’s shipbuilding industry, and ensure we could concentrate a decent amount of naval power in the Arctic within two years.
Air Power
Air power is where things get the most complex.
Building a highly advanced air force cannot be done quickly.
While it’s easy to rapidly expand gun production and mass produce armoured vehicles, and while Canada already possesses strong shipbuilding knowledge, rapidly scaling up an advanced air force requires decades.
Usually, countries don’t even bother trying to build up a military aerospace industry from scratch and instead buy equipment from countries that already have an advanced military aerospace sector.
In the long run, Canada could become one of the countries with a strong domestic aerospace sector.
We have a strong commercial aerospace sector, and that – combined with our tech-savvy and well-educated populace – could turn us into a powerhouse in military drone production in the future. Additionally (putting aside the ‘no allies’ scenario we’re looking at for the time being), many of our European allies are cooperating to build 6th generation fighters, and we could join those projects.
But for now, we’re looking at what we could do by ourselves within two years.
And that means realistically appraising our defence production capability when it comes to air power.
While this may seem hopeless, it’s important to remember that there is a wide range between ‘no airforce’ and a ‘superpower airforce.’
Canada already possesses some decent – though outdated fighter jets (CF-18s) – and we have a strong civilian aerospace sector that could be shifted toward military production.
If we were to build up some Arctic bases (land bases, naval bases, and air bases) in the two years preceding the hypothetical invasion scenario, we would have the advantage of being able to concentrate air power in our territory.
But what could we build in that two-year timeframe?
First, it would make sense to utilize Bombardier’s existing production capabilities (Challenger, Global 8000) to develop surveillance aircraft. The Global 8000 is the fastest commercial aircraft since the Concorde, and it could be fitted with a surveillance suite to provide intel in the Arctic. The aircraft also has a range of 8,000 nautical miles, making it well suited to a reconnaissance role.
And – though it would be far from ideal – Bombardier aircraft could be fitted with guns to provide a rudimentary ground attack capability. Again, these planes would not be good combat aircraft nor would they be good ground attack aircraft, but we’re talking about a desperation scenario here.
The government could then contract Magellan Aerospace to utilize their expertise in space & satellite systems to design missile guidance systems so Canada can start producing missiles. Magellan Aerospace also produces rockets and could be tasked with producing a long-range strike capability for Canada. This would come in handy if we need to target Russian and Chinese ships in the vast North.
De Havilland Canada could be contracted to produce maritime patrol and electronic warfare aircraft versions of the Dash 8 and Twin Otter aircraft.
It must be said that on a two-year timetable, the most realistic outcome is that Canada can supplement our out-of-date CF-18s with some rudimentary ground attack aircraft, long-range recon, electronic warfare planes, and missiles. These planes would be facing Russian/Chinese strategic bombers and 5th-generation fighters. So, the air war would be largely defensive, and we would need to supplement our air force with significant air defence. Still, Canada is not exactly helpless when it comes to building up some air power.
Munitions & Artillery
If we’ve learned anything from Russia’s war against Ukraine, it’s that war hasn’t changed as much as we thought.
With neither country able to gain air superiority, and with many of the most advanced long-range Russian missiles being used up in the war’s initial stages, much has been decided by old-fashioned artillery production, air defence, and putting guns in the hands of soldiers on the ground.
If Canada were forced to defend the North alone, we would need to be able to fight an old-fashioned war.
We would need to produce artillery and small arms in large quantities.
To initiate this process, the Canadian government could nationalize General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada. In Quebec, the company produces Small Arms Ammunition (5.56 mm, 7.62mm, and 12.7mm) and artillery shells (105mm, and 155mm).
An initial goal could be to quadruple artillery production and work with the aforementioned Magellan Aerospace to develop and produce guided munitions in Canada.
The government could then nationalize Canadian Industries Limited – a producer of explosives among other products – to start mass producing explosives for military use.
Electronic & Cyber Warfare
Satellites play a big role in modern warfare, providing essential information and intelligence to forces on the ground. Currently, Canada is dependent on foreign countries to get our satellites into orbit, but this is about to change, as reported by the Ottawa Citizen on January 10th of this year:
“Maritime Launch Services, a Canadian firm founded in 2016 and headquartered in Nova Scotia, is building the country’s first spaceport. The company completed its first suborbital launch on July 7, 2023, and is planning its first orbital launch in 2026 from its location near Canso, N.S.
The DND memorandum, prepared in January 2024, noted that Canada was one of the only space-faring nations without a sovereign launch capability. It has relied on other countries including, in the past, Russia to launch spacecraft.
The Maritime Launch Services project could be a definite asset for Canada, noted the document prepared for Defence Minister Bill Blair by then deputy minister Bill Matthews.
Such a capability would reduce Canada’s dependency on other nations, give it the flexibility to launch its own satellites when needed, and possibly reduce launch costs.”
The government should heavily invest in Maritime Launch Services, and work with MDA in Brampton, Ontario & Magellan Aerospace to produce ISR satellites for the Canadian Armed Forces.
Then, the government should contract L3Harris in Burlington, Ontario to build local supply chains to expand the production of Electro-optical/infrared targeting systems.
Now, let’s do a breakdown of overall costs:
Remember, we started with an overall budget of $70 billion. We are assuming $10 billion goes towards compensating private companies for nationalization and the purchase of licenses to manufacture equipment. Again, in a pure desperation scenario, the government could simply take the companies and intellectual property without compensation, but we will assume that the government hopes to preserve relations with other countries in the long term, and thus compensates those who have their companies nationalized.
That leaves $60 billion.
Here is how that money could be allocated:
- Land systems production – $10 billion
- Small arms – $2.0 billion
- Naval buildup – $12 billion
- Air Force upgrades – $10 billion
- Munitions production – $5 billion
- Cyberwarfare systems/satellites – $6 billion
- Missile development – $5 billion
That adds up to $50 billion.
I would then add an $8 billion ‘resource & logistical reserve’ which could go towards bolstering the domestic supply chain to make domestic military production possible.
And the final $2 billion could go towards building a domestic drone industry, which is something we will look at in an upcoming column.
Even in the worst-case scenario, Canada has a military-industrial complex we can build upon.
My goal with this article is to demonstrate that even in a dire scenario in which we have no help from other countries (which is unlikely), Canada has domestic military production capability that can be bolstered with a focused and substantial investment.
Canada is a wealthy and technologically advanced nation. When it comes to military production our biggest weakness is scale, not capability. And because it is far easier to build up the scale of production rather than acquire the capability to produce, Canada has the foundation of military strength.
Now, it’s time to start building on that foundation.
Spencer Fernando
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