There is no reason for our country to be at the mercy of others. We have the resources, wealth, and people to become one of the world’s most powerful nations. For that to happen, however, our mindset needs to change.
For too long, our country has been stuck in a ‘can’t do’ mindset.
Often, the first response to any kind of ambitious idea is why it can’t be done, why it’s impossible, why only other nations can do it, etc.
I’ve noticed this attitude quite often in response to proposals to build up the Canadian military.
I’ll often hear things like “Canada can’t afford it,” “our population is too small,” or “nobody wants to join the military,” or “we can’t build anything.”
Aside from the fact that all of those statements are untrue, it’s concerning that our first answer as a country is often to just say ‘no’ rather than saying ‘how can we make this work.’
We see the same thing with the energy sector.
In 2022, when our democratic allies in Japan and Germany came to Canada and asked for us to sell more LNG, the response from the Canadian government was to say there was not a strong business case for such exports:
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there has “never been a strong business case” for liquified natural gas exports from Canada’s East Coast to Europe, dealing a blow to those in the energy industry who thought Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presented an opportunity to revive dormant gas projects.
Trudeau made the comments Monday during a joint press conference with his German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, who is visiting Canada for the first time as chancellor. The pair were grilled on the likelihood of Canadian LNG being directly exported to Europe over the next few years as countries such as Germany seek to reduce their reliance on Russian gas, now that the European Union appears determined to isolate President Vladimir Putin’s regime in retaliation for its unprovoked attack on a democratic country.”
Unsurprisingly, other countries like the United States and Qatar jumped on the opportunity and have since signed tens of billions of dollars worth of contracts with LNG-hungry nations.
Those contracts could have been ours.
But that’s the cost of thinking small.
If we don’t seize opportunities, others will.
Mindset matters
When discussing what makes a country powerful, we often look at things like population size, landmass, natural resources, wealth, and military strength.
Those things are important, but there is something else that matters as much – if not more:
The mindset of the nation’s citizens.
The right mindset can turn a small country into a mighty one.
The wrong mindset can turn a mighty country into a small one.
Consider the case of Israel and Iran.
Israel has a tiny landmass, almost no natural resources, and a population of around 10 million people.
Iran has a large landmass, significant oil reserves, and a population of about 92 million.
On paper, Iran should be far more powerful than Israel.
But that is not the case.
Israel’s citizens are ambitious, innovative, resilient, and determined to survive.
Iran’s citizens are held back by a fearful authoritarian regime that keeps people poor and suppresses innovation, and the country thus punches way below its weight.
We see something similar when looking at Ukraine and Russia.
Russia has more than three times the population of Ukraine.
Russia possesses the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.
Russia inherited the vast majority of the USSR’s tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, artillery, aircraft, and ships.
Russia’s landmass dwarfs Ukraine.
And yet, Ukraine’s will to resist, Ukraine’s determination to survive, and Ukraine’s ingenuity have enabled that nation to fight Russia to a standstill.
Ukraine is a nation that has long been moving in a more open, democratic, and innovative direction, whereas Russia has long been moving in a more closed, autocratic, and sclerotic direction.
The difference in mindset – and the consequences – are not always so stark, but we can see that it still matters.
For example, Germany has a highly advanced arms industry that produces some of the world’s best tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery, and more. Germany has a powerful economy with highly productive citizens and has a strong geopolitical position sitting at the heart of Europe. And yet, for both historical reasons and due to an embrace of the similar kind of ‘end of history’ naivety we see in Canada, Germany is far from a top military power.
Germany has a GDP over twice as large as Russia’s ($4.6 trillion for Germany vs $2.2 trillion for Russia). Germany should be able to singlehandedly match and exceed Russian military strength.
And the same is true of Canada.
Were Canada to spend 4% of GDP on our military (the same percentage Poland spends right now), our military budget would be just under $100 billion.
That would put us fourth in the entire world.
Take a moment to consider that again.
If Canada spent 4% of GDP on our military, we would have the world’s fourth-largest military budget.
Canada has spent this much before. In 1961, we spent 4.13% of GDP on our military. In WW2 – for obvious reasons – military spending as a percentage of GDP in Canada hit 37%.
So when people say Canada ‘can’t have a powerful military; because we supposedly ‘can’t’ afford it, they are factually wrong.
Canada is currently choosing not to have a powerful military, which is very different from being unable to do so.
A Great Power Mindset or a Bystander?
Right now, Canada is often like a bystander on the world stage.
We look at events around the globe with concern and fear, while feeling unable to influence those events or even protect ourselves from them.
We feel that everything is happening to us, rather than us influencing what happens.
With Donald Trump threatening to deliberately destroy our economy and withdraw military protection from Canada, Canadians are understandably feeling very vulnerable.
And people are right to feel that way.
At this moment, our nation is incredibly vulnerable.
But we don’t need to stay stuck in this mindset.
As noted above, the world is full of examples of countries that manage to act as great powers despite facing significant limitations. Those countries may often seek aid from other nations, but even as they do so they are fundamentally strong because they believe in themselves and because they are determined to scratch and claw to make the most of every asset they have.
Instead of looking for reasons why something can’t be done, great powers look for reasons why success is possible.
And great powers learn from moments of vulnerability.
France learned from their shocking defeat in WW2 (at the time France was seen by many as having the world’s strongest army). France now possesses nuclear weapons, a strong domestic military industry, and even the ability to project power across the globe.
Poland learned from their defeat in WW2 and subsequent decades-long oppression by the Soviet Union and is now building a powerhouse of an army. Poland is buying seemingly every piece of military equipment they can get their hands on, and is even partnering with South Korea on tank production and missile designs. Poland is refusing to let itself be caught in a vulnerable position again.
Through suffering and loss, Poland and France changed their mindsets to ensure they never went through such suffering and loss again.
The pain of national vulnerability was turned into national strength.
And this is the transformation Canada needs to make.
We are in danger.
The unstable United States has us in its sights, and we can’t assume U.S. institutions will hold. We can’t assume others will come to our rescue.
We can’t control what the U.S. will do. Nobody in the U.S. knows what the U.S. is going to do since it all comes down to the whims of one man in the White House.
But as Canadians, we can control what we do.
We can rapidly build up our military,
We can start building pipelines to get our energy to new markets.
We can signal – as leaders across the political spectrum in Canada are starting to do – that we will pay any price to preserve our independence.
We can start thinking of ourselves as a big player on the world stage.
We can turn our present weakness into strength.
We can use this moment of short-term fear and turn it into long-term security and resolve.
Other nations have faced far worse and overcome it.
There’s every reason to believe Canada can do the same.
With a new mindset – the mindset of a great power – Canada will become the nation we deserve to be.
Spencer Fernando
If this piece left you clearer than it found you, that's the point. I write for readers who want to think past the week, to see the longer pattern beneath the daily story, and to come away steadier rather than more agitated.
That longer view gets built somewhere. On Patreon, essay by essay, I'm constructing The Long Work, a body of analysis meant to outlast the news cycle that prompted it. The readers there make it possible. No subsidies, no strings. The work answers to them.
$8/month to read it as it's built, and to have a hand in building it.