Have your cake and eat it too?
Breaking up a country is no small thing.
It’s not an experiment or a game.
It marks an irrevocable ‘before’ and ‘after.’
It impacts not just those who leave but also those in the rest of the now-altered and diminished country and those in the now-seceded nation state who opposed departing, as they are left stranded outside the country they once called home.
It follows then that attempting to break up a country is also no small thing.
It is serious, as serious as it gets.
Thus, to use deception and misdirection to try and convince people to break up a nation is deeply irresponsible and does a profound disservice to all involved.
Making a profound historical rupture seem easy and painless is simply at odds with reality.
Unfortunately, that’s the direction the Alberta separatist movement is heading.
All the benefits, none of the drawbacks
The Alberta Prosperity Project – a separatist organization – recently released its proposed Alberta secession referendum question.
“Do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”
While acknowledging the seriousness of the moment, the organization has made some unserious claims. They claim that a post-secession Alberta would have lower provincial taxes, no federal taxes, and more pipelines into the United States. The most unserious claim, however, is that Albertan residents would continue to receive their Canada Pension Plan payments and would retain Canadian passports.
In effect, they are pitching an independent Alberta with all the benefits of being an independent nation, and none of the drawbacks.
Here’s why those claims are doubtful.
In the event of separation, Alberta’s provincial taxes would become federal taxes. All education and healthcare costs would be paid by Alberta alone. Alberta would have to pay for its own military, national security apparatus, and border control. Further, a decision would have to be made as to whether Alberta would have its own currency, use the US Dollar, use the Canadian Dollar, or have no official currency at all.
If Alberta wanted its own currency, it would need a central bank. As a smaller country, and one subject to wild economic swings due to the oil and gas sector’s significant contribution to the economy, Alberta could find it more difficult to borrow affordably when low oil prices drive up budget deficits.
If Alberta used the Canadian Dollar or U.S. Dollar, it would cede control over its monetary policy, without the attendant benefits of being part of a larger nation state. For example, were Alberta to experience an economic decline or grow slower on a per capita basis relative to other provinces, Canada’s equalization system would end up providing net payments to Alberta. However, if Alberta were a separate nation, it would receive no such support in the event of a prolonged economic downturn.
There is also no guarantee that more pipelines would be built into the United States, and even if they were, this would not address the price differential problem. An independent Alberta would be a landlocked nation. If Canada hit Alberta with taxes on the shipment of oil through Canadian territory, Alberta would become even more reliant upon the U.S., making it easier for the U.S. to demand lower prices for Alberta oil & gas.
Thus, Alberta’s best path to prosperity is for Canada to build more pipelines to tidewater (BC, Energy East, Hudson Bay). There is little chance of that happening if Alberta leaves.
As for CPP payments and retaining Canadian passports, political reality in the rest of Canada would render that unlikely. Canadian voters would be unwilling to give Alberta a good deal after having watched the country be torn asunder, and Canada would have significant leverage due to Alberta’s landlocked status. Canada would likely drive a hard bargain to assuage voter anger and to dissuade further separatist movements in other parts of the country.
As citizens of an independent country, Albertans would have to go through a border process similar to the Canada-U.S. border.
And there is little chance Canadians would be fine letting non-citizens be a part of the CPP. Canadians outside Alberta won’t get a vote if a referendum occurs, but they will get a say afterwards in terms of how any deal looks, and rewarding those who broke up the nation is among the least likely scenarios. A tough response is far more probable.
Let’s also not forget that secession would likely drive hundreds of thousands of federalists out of the province, and the lead up to the process, let alone secession itself, would cause significant economic damage as companies fled for more stable jurisdictions.
The importance of honesty
As someone who believes Alberta should remain in Canada, it is important to note that Alberta is not without legitimate grievances. During the Trudeau era, there was often a sense that the province was used as a political punching bag, with the federal government content to polarize people against the province, while still gladly benefiting from the profit generated by the oil & gas sector.
Further, former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault seemed as if he was designed in a lab to be as polarizing in the West as possible. The former Trudeau government must own its part in bringing about the rise of separatist sentiment, and the new Carney government must act responsibly to address Alberta’s concerns and help keep the country intact.
That said, Alberta separatists are not being honest with voters by selling a magically painless version of secession. It shows a disrespect for Albertans and betrays a lack of confidence in the cause, indicating fear that an honest assessment of secession’s consequences would make secession more unpopular.
It should also be remembered that a majority of Albertans remain federalists. A recent Angus Reid poll showed 60% of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada, while 36% would vote to leave. And – if the federal government shows a willingness to listen – there is reason to believe this could represent the high-water mark of separatist sentiment in the West, given the lingering anger over the Conservatives’ fourth consecutive defeat.
Canada is worth defending
Canada remains a vast and beautiful nation full of talented, hardworking, and patriotic people. we have long stood as a haven for people from around the world who came here, often with nothing, to build a new life and new identity as proud Canadians. While our history is imperfect, we have, through remembrance, reconciliation with Indigenous People, and open debate about the past, sought to learn and grow.
Given our resources, alliances, and positioning, we have the potential to achieve levels of prosperity that go beyond our wildest dreams. To throw that away now would be tragic, and to do so based on lies would be doubly so.
Spencer Fernando
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