Preparing for the worst means preparing Canada to become a hub of military production.
Let’s take a moment to consider how a third world war – initiated by China, Russia, North Korea, and their proxies- could begin.
Massive internet disruptions, attacks on the financial system, and destruction of satellites would be among the opening moves. Massive missile and drone attacks would then follow, with Russia targeting air bases, shipyards, army bases, airports, and production facilities in Europe, China targeting Taiwan’s (and possibly Japan’s) defences, and North Korea launching massive artillery strikes on South Korea.
Even if a large portion of the initial Russian, Chinese, and North Korean barrage was repulsed, our European and Asian allies would find themselves in a desperate situation, and their remaining military production would be directed toward meeting immediate needs.
Once such a conflict has begun, the idea of countries like Germany and South Korea producing submarines for export would be absurd, even if their production facilities remained intact, which is far from guaranteed.
Why mention those countries specifically?
Because either Germany or South Korea will be producing Canada’s new submarines. And as noted by Philippe Lagassé, both those nations are on the front line of a potential future conflict:
And the Tweet Lagassé is quoting inspired this article:
Intellectual property for production capacity insurance
This puts Canada and our allies in a perilous position. It’s dangerous for Canada because we are depending on at-risk countries to build the submarines we need. And it’s risky for our allies, because it means they lack insurance if their facilities are damaged or destroyed.
This is where the importance of trade and cooperation comes to the fore. Our allies have something Canada needs: Military intellectual property. We have something our allies need: Territory farther from a potential conflict zone. This doesn’t mean Canada is invulnerable. In fact, any large-scale war could feature attacks on Canadian ports and incursions in the North. But our Northern territory is sparse and far from population/production centres, and our ports are far from the bulk of Russian, North Korean, and Chinese forces, meaning any strikes would likely be limited to a few long-range missile attacks and drone infiltration. By contrast, German and South Korean ports and naval production facilities are very close to Russia/North Korea, putting them at immediate risk.
Time to prepare
Notably, and dependent, of course, on Canada picking German submarines over South Korean submarines, the German Armaments Secretary is musing about the possibility of producing a portion of the Type 212CD submarines in Canada:
“There’s nothing stopping Canada from building half — maybe more — of the dozen submarines it intends to buy for the navy, Germany’s armament state secretary tells CBC News.
Jens Plötner says the decision would be up to the Canadian government, but the notion is within the realm of industrial possibility — and given the state of geopolitics it might make strategic sense.
“You’re looking to acquire 12 submarines. That is a huge number,” Plötner said in an exclusive interview with CBC News this week.
“This is a program so big, it will span over many, many years. And while there would probably be a mutual interest in building the first in one of the existing production sites in Germany, I think it would be only natural if the Canadian government would ask TKMS to, in parallel, build up production facilities here in Canada, so that subsequent vessels could be built here.”
Canada would be wise to make domestic production of a portion of the submarine order a necessity for accepting either the German or South Korean bid, and we should be prepared to spend billions of dollars to build the necessary production facilities and start training Canadian workers to ensure we have the skills here at home to produce advanced submarines long into the future.
While spending billions at a time when budgetary restraint is being talked about in Ottawa may seem incoherent, the reality is that Canada needs spending restraint everywhere aside from the military. We spent so many years underfunding our defences, and are now so far behind the curve in responding to a more dangerous world, that ensuring a robust national defence requires massive ‘catch-up’ spending while holding the line in other areas.
Our allies should welcome this. If Canada can produce licensed designs of submarines for ourselves in a territory somewhat removed from the frontline, we will also have the capability to produce submarines for our allies. This could also make potential adversaries think twice about launching a conflict, as they would know that even a large-scale first strike on production facilities in Europe and Asia wouldn’t completely wipe out production capacity. Canada could even have facilities prepared to welcome defence industry workers to come to Canada in the event of a large-scale conflict to buttress our production and preserve overall allied production capacity in a safer location.
These are the kinds of things our leaders need to be thinking about. Canada could have an important role to play as an arsenal of democracy for our allies, but only if we act fast.
Spencer Fernando
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