According to Statistics Canada, the population decline is “mainly due to a drop in non-permanent residents.”
The Canadian government continues to reduce immigration levels, and these reductions, combined with a high net outflow of non-permanent residents, have pushed Canada into outright population decline.
According to Statistics Canada, between July 1st and October 1st of 2025, Canada’s population declined by 76,068 people. As noted by StatsCan, this was largely due to a decline in the number of non-permanent residents as a “result of changing government policies concerning international migration.”
The largest population decline was in Ontario (-0.4%) and British Columbia (-0.3%). The population declined in every province and territory, except for Alberta and Nunavut. Canada’s population now stands at 41,575,585.
The data indicate the government is making good on its promise to reduce immigration levels and lower the number of non-permanent residents in Canada as a percentage of the population:
“Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada’s population over this period.
This drop in non-permanent residents surpassed the decreases in the second (-58,719) and first (-55,194) quarters of 2025 and was the largest since comparable records began (the third quarter of 1971).
With these preliminary estimates, every province and territory had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1, 2025, than on July 1, 2025 (excluding Nunavut, +10). The largest decrease was seen in Ontario (-107,280), followed by British Columbia (-26,242), Quebec (-15,989) and Alberta (-10,605).
On October 1, 2025, there were 2,847,737 non-permanent residents in Canada (6.8% of the total population), down from 3,024,216 on July 1, 2025 (7.3% of the total population). The decrease in the estimated number of non-permanent residents was the result of larger, record-high outflows (339,505)—that is, permits expiring—compared with inflows (163,026), which reflect permits issued.
Estimates on the total number of non-permanent residents in Canada are available back to July 1, 2021. On that date, there were 1,361,855 non-permanent residents in the country (3.6% of the total population). This increased to a peak of 3,149,131 (7.6% of the total population) on October 1, 2024, and has decreased in every subsequent quarter.”
Permanent immigration levels remain similar to those following Q4 of 2024 (when the government already began to bring immigration numbers down), with 102,867 immigrants being welcomed in Q3 of this year.
Notably, Canada’s natural population increase (births minus deaths) stands at +17,600, yet the population declined overall due to net international migration of -93,668.
The facts make it clear that the immigration situation in Canada is far different from what it was before this year. Since late 2024, a dramatic shift has occurred, and overall immigration levels have been reduced dramatically, particularly when we look at non-permanent residents (international students, temporary foreign workers).
Spencer Fernando
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