A strategic opportunity to advance Canadian defence autonomy and reduce overdependence on the United States.
As we adjust to a more multipolar world, Canada must find new partners beyond the United States. This applies not only to trade and economic partnerships, but also to national defence. We must cast a wide net and seize on opportunities that present themselves, particularly when we have a chance to help shape the emerging order.
One such opportunity has just emerged. According to Defence Industry Analyst Nicholas Drummond, Canada and Australia are considering joining the Global Combat Air Programme alongside the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy:
“Both Canada and Australia are apparently considering joining the UK-Japan-Italy GCAP / Tempest programme. This is excellent news. More users providing more investment will de-risk it and help achieve a cutting-edge capability.”
As the Global Combat Air Programme continues to advance the development of a sixth-generation combat stealth aircraft – the next generation of combat aircraft after jets like the F-35 – There is still time for Canada to get involved, as the project is at an early stage. The GCAP was announced in December 2022 and ratified in a treaty between the U.K., Japan, and Italy signed a treaty in December 2023.
In a positive development, the U.K. Minister for Defence Procurement has expressed openness to Canada joining the project, saying, “All three Global Combat Air Programme nations have highlighted an openness to working with other nations, while keeping us on track with the programme delivery schedule and helping us deliver future military capabilities.”
Per that schedule, a demonstrator aircraft is expected to fly within two years, while the planes will enter into service by 2035.
With that timeline, this will not be the fix for Canada’s short-term dearth of combat aircraft, nor will it address the question of whether we should continue with our full F-35 purchase or buy a European fighter like the Gripen or Rafale. However, the long-term benefits would make it well worth it.
Joining the GCAP would be a clear expression of Canada’s desire to reduce our dependence upon the United States. Amid rising unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy, Canada must look elsewhere. The U.K., Japan, Italy, and Australia – assuming Australia joins as well – are all good fits as technologically advanced ‘middle power’ nations that are wealthy on a per capita basis while lacking the critical population mass of the United States. Together, middle powers can function as great powers, and pooling our resources to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter would be a wise move. Canada would add 40 million people and over $2 trillion in GDP to the program, and our well-developed aerospace and tech sectors could help speed up the project. Combined, Canada, the U.K., Australia, Italy, and Japan have a GDP of nearly $14 trillion, lagging only the United States and China.
Current GCAP partners would benefit from Canada’s participation due to our financial and technological resources, and an initial large-scale investment into the program could be our ‘buy-in’ to demonstrate commitment. The benefit to the Canadian aerospace industry would be significant. We would get to work alongside BAE Systems – the largest defence contract in Europe, and Leonardo S.p.A., a well-established Italian defence firm. Japan is also pooling its aerospace sector together into the creation of ‘Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Limited’, adding the heft of Japan’s considerable economic and technological resources to the project. Further, companies such as Rolls-Royce, MBDA, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Avio Aero, and Elettronica S.p.A. are involved in the project. Imagine how much the Canadian aerospace sector, tech sector, and other sectors could learn from those well-established firms.
A transformational opportunity
The timing is almost perfect. If Canada were to join the GCAP, we would not only be securing our long-term access to advanced combat aircraft, but we would also be making an investment that would raise our technological level. There would be a ripple effect through Canadian society, with countless smaller companies throughout the supply chain benefitting from contracts and knowledge-sharing, which could then be applied to our domestic military industry and civilian industry. GCAP participation would spur high-value manufacturing jobs and new university-industry partnerships. With a substantial enough investment, Canada could ensure that a significant portion of the aircraft parts would be built here in Canada.
Further, working so closely with GCAP partner nations would firm up defence ties and potentially lead to an alliance among those nations. One of the most effective ways to secure our sovereignty in a more fragmented and chaotic world is to form multiple alliance groupings, creating a larger web of nations that feel tied to Canada and are committed to our defence, and vice versa. An alliance that encompasses Canada, the U.K., Japan, Italy, and Australia would be formidable, particularly if that alliance is mass-producing advanced sixth-generation stealth fighters.
For all these reasons, joining the GCAP is something Canada should not only consider, but should actively pursue. While the upfront investment would be substantial (current GCAP nations have a right to expect us to ‘catch up’ to the investment they’ve already made), the long-term benefits cannot be overlooked. Billions spent in the short term would more than come back to us in long-term economic growth, enhanced security, technological advances, and deepened trade ties with some of the world’s most dynamic economies.
Years of short-term thinking on national defence (doing the least possible to give the illusion of action) have caught up to Canada. We find ourselves dangerously vulnerable in a world that has become a much harsher place. To start digging ourselves out of this predicament, we need short-term action to rapidly expand our military. But we also need long-term thinking. Had we acted to strengthen our national defence 10 years ago, we would be in a much better position today. We must learn from that lesson and take actions now, like joining the GCAP, that ensure we will be a secure and sovereign nation in 2035.
Spencer Fernando
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