The latest data from Statistics Canada shows the Canadian economy grew 0.5% in April, exceeding StatsCan’s estimate of 0.4% growth. This more than offsets the 0.1% decline in GDP that occurred in March.
Growth was widespread, with expansion in 14 out of 20 sectors. Growth was strongest in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. The services industry also grew for the third month in a row, and manufacturing grew by 0.6%.
Following four monthly declines, construction activity grew, with growth in all construction subsectors.
Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for May is 0.1% growth. As noted by RBC, manufacturing and home resales are growing, while the goods sector faces challenges related to trade:
“Manufacturing and home resales strengthened in May, with the latter posting its largest monthly increase since October 2024. Those gains were partly offset by weaker wholesale activity, suggesting trade-related headwinds continued to weigh on parts of the goods sector. That said, as-reported today’s data is tracking some upside risk to our forecast for a 1.7% (annualized QoQ) increase in Q2.”
The per capita GDP picture also appears to be moving in the right direction, with RBC noting that “the latest data are broadly consistent with our view that underlying economic conditions continue to improve modestly on a per-person basis rather than signaling a material shift in underlying momentum.”
These numbers indicate the Canadian economy has regained some positive momentum and continues to show resilience in the face of tariffs from the U.S. This is a solid foundation to build on. To achieve higher growth, Canada should continue deepening trade ties with reliable trading partners, expand the shift towards a more supportive approach regarding the oil and gas sector, and entrench federal openness to AI. And most importantly, we should retain an open and abundance-focused posture, recognizing that free trade can be a win-win proposition, rather than closing ourselves off to others.
Spencer Fernando
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