Liberals secure majority government while CPC vote collapses

Over a year after winning a minority government in the 2025 federal election, the Liberals have secured a majority in the House of Commons. Five floor-crossings (four from the Conservatives and one from the NDP) brought the Liberals to within one seat of the 172 seats needed for a majority. Three byelections (two in ridings the Liberals won decisively in 2025 and one in a riding the Liberals won by a single vote until the result was annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada due to a challenge from the Bloc candidate – a Canada Post error led to a Bloc supporter’s vote not being delivered in time), gave the Liberals a chance to gain a majority. And on Monday night, the Liberals did exactly that, winning all three open seats.

Per Elections Canada, here are the results:

Scarborough Southwest

Doly Begum – Liberal – 20,114 – 69.9%

Diana Filipova – Conservative – 5,300 – 18.4%

Fatima Shaban – NDP – 1,714 – 6%

University—Rosedale

Danielle Martin – Liberal – 19,032 – 64.0%

Serena Purdy – NDP – 5,708 – 19.2%

Don Hodgson – Conservative – 3,715 – 12.5%

Terrebonne

Tatiana Auguste – Liberal – 22,149 – 48.5%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné – Bloc – 21,379 – 46.8%

Adrienne Charles – Conservatives – 1,530 – 3.3%

CPC vote collapses

While the Liberal majority is the big story of the byelection night, it was anticipated. After five floor crossings, the Liberals needed to win only one of the three byelections to get a technical majority, and two for a functional majority (since the Speaker is a Liberal, 173 seats ensures the Speaker does not need to break ties). Since two of three byelections were in deep-red seats, the majority is not a big surprise. Less anticipated was the collapse of the CPC vote in all three ridings.

Compared to the 2025 federal election, the Conservative candidate’s vote percentage is down 12.7 points in Scarborough Southwest, while the Liberal candidate’s vote percentage is up 8.4 points. In University—Rosedale, the Conservative candidate’s vote percentage is down 11 points, while the Liberal candidate’s vote percentage is steady. And in Terrebonne, the Conservative candidate’s vote percentage is down 14.8 points, while the Liberal candidate’s percentage is up 9.8 points, and the Bloc candidate’s percentage is up 8.1 points.

This is a clear indication that the polls showing growing Liberal support and declining Conservative support are accurate, and that voters are not punishing the Liberals in the wake of floor crossings.

Spencer Fernando