Had the Allies checked Germany in Poland in 1939, the Second World War might have been far shorter. Likewise, support for Ukraine today is cheaper than the price of letting Vladimir Putin redraw borders by force.
Had the United Kingdom and France invaded Germany immediately upon Germany’s invasion of Poland in 1939, it is quite possible that the Second World War could have been either concluded almost immediately – in Europe at least – or shortened immensely.
Germany’s whole strategy was to snowball in power, gaining gold reserves, troops, and munitions plants from Austria, gaining more from Czechoslovakia, gaining even more from Poland, using those gains to increase their odds against France, and using their dominance of continental Europe to intimidate non-conquered nations to join the Axis and ultimately launching an invasion of the Soviet Union that produced some of the most horrific barbarity and violence in human history. Further, Germany’s early successes helped consolidate the fascist regime to the extent that it could unleash its full hatred and evil by perpetrating the Holocaust.
Had Germany been halted – or at least severely challenged – in Poland, things could have gone differently. When Germany invaded Poland in 1939, the Siegfried Line in Western Germany was sparsely defended while the fascists massed in the East. Had France and the United Kingdom gone ‘all in’ and invaded Germany then, they would have had the chance to make rapid advances, force Germany to redeploy troops from the East thus easing the pressure on Poland, forced Germany into a two-front war, potentially destabilized the fascist regime, and weakened Germany to the extent that future aggression would have been almost impossible.
Germany could have been either outright defeated or weakened so significantly that the country would have been trapped in a defensive posture, unable to conquer large swathes of Europe, thus limiting the number of people subjected to Germany’s genocidal plans.
Unfortunately, out of a desire to avoid war, the Allies ended up having to fight a war anyway, only on Germany’s terms. And while Germany was ultimately defeated, the cost was much higher than it would have been had the Allies seized the initiative.
Stopping Russia in Ukraine is our ‘stop Germany in Poland’ moment
In a recent appearance on the OShow with Laura Babcock, I noted that we are now facing a ‘stop Germany in Poland’ moment (my portion of the interview begins at 22:01):
If Russia conquers Ukraine – either fully or in part – it will have a larger population from which to forcibly recruit future military personnel, will have borders closer to the heart of Europe, will have an expanded military production capacity from seizing Ukrainian facilities, and will thus be more dangerous in the medium to long term. Russia would brutally oppress the Ukrainian People in the conquered territories, as Russia already does in the territory it has currently seized.
Given that Russia has already shifted towards a total war economy, the threat to NATO nations will be heightened. A victorious Russia would be emboldened, feeling that it was able to withstand everything Europe, the US, and Canada could throw at it in terms of support for Ukraine, and would be tempted to further test the ‘weak West’ by invading a NATO country (likely one of the Baltic nations).
Such an attack by Russia would lead to a much larger war, plunge NATO into chaos, severely damage the global economy, and necessitate a much larger military buildup by NATO countries. If you think spending 3.5% of GDP on defence is onerous and the cost of living is high now, imagine what the cost of living would be if Europe were plunged into a massive war, and imagine how much we would have to spend in a desperate effort to contain a larger and more confident Russian empire, particularly if the US decided to sit it out.
Support Ukraine now, or pay more later
We face a clear choice: We can either support Ukraine now through expanded shipments of weapons, credible security guarantees, and a post-war reassurance force, or we can pay far more in lives and dollars later by stepping back from Ukraine and increasing the odds of a Russian victory.
Abandoning Ukraine would not be ‘pro-peace’ or ‘fiscally responsible.’ Instead, just as failing to confront Germany immediately in 1939 led to far more death and economic devastation, failing to support Ukraine would be pro-war and fiscally ruinous.
And so, regardless of what the US does, Canada and our European allies must ramp up military production both for our own long-overdue military expansions and to flood Ukraine with as many weapons as possible to ensure Russia’s invasion is stopped.
Let’s prove we’ve learned the lesson of history and stop a wider war while we still can by helping to save Ukraine and defeat Russia now.
Spencer Fernando
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