Art of the deal.
For Western military officials, geopolitical strategists, politicians, and diplomats, the nightmare scenario is a deep and official China-Russia alliance against the West. But there is an even worse possible outcome.
The hyper-nightmare scenario is a China-Russia-India alliance.
This prospect had seemed distant for quite some time, given the animosity (and even border skirmishes) between India and China, as well as India’s interest in keeping its options open and thus avoiding a commitment to either the West or the China-Russia axis. India (quite understandably, given its long history and immense population) views itself as a civilization and power that others should seek out as an equal partner.
India also recognized the importance of counterbalancing China’s influence and avoiding overdependence on Russia, given Russia’s significant economic weakness, military constraints, and deep unpopularity in the West.
Thus, it would take a truly horrendous and ill-judged foreign policy posture to push India deeper into the China-Russia camp.
And that brings us to U.S. President Donald Trump
For quite some time, backers of Donald Trump’s foreign policy have implied that he is pulling off a ‘reverse Kissinger.’ Whereas Henry Kissinger managed to pry Communist China away from the Soviet Union, Trump was supposedly going to pry Russia away from China.
Obviously, this has not happened. Trump has repeatedly backed off his own demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine (Ukraine has agreed countless times, whereas Russia has not), and has given Putin “two weeks” so many times that I’ve lost count. Trump has exacted zero concessions from Putin, and Russian attacks on Ukraine have increased in intensity under Trump compared to Biden. Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin resulted in nothing other than Trump backing off his threats of consequences if Russia didn’t agree to a ceasefire.
China and Russia have grown closer under Trump’s watch, with China continuing to provide essential technology to Russia and purchasing Russian energy. Further, North Korea has sent significant amounts of ammunition and troops to Russia to aid Putin’s ruthless attacks on Ukraine, something that would not happen without China’s approval.
So, the ‘reverse Kissinger’ has clearly failed.
And now, Trump’s obsession with tariffs and inability to separate his personal interests from the interests of the United States and the Western world more broadly has brought about geopolitical disaster.
China-India-Russia
Multiple reports indicate that in a recent phone conversation, U.S. President Donald Trump strongly hinted that India’s President Narendra Modi should nominate him for a Nobel Prize for allegedly bringing about a resolution of a recent India-Pakistan conflict, despite the limited U.S. role. Modi demurred, in contrast to Pakistan, which has plans to nominate Trump for the peace prize.
Trump, unable or unwilling to recognize that he is not America, has since decided to single out India for its purchase of Russian energy, an inexplicable move given that Trump is going easy on China (a nation that is deeply tied to Russia economically), and given that Trump himself goes easy on Russia all the time.
Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India, and some of his advisors are using quite odd messaging regarding the country:
Trump himself continues to launch broadsides at India online:
The problem is not Trump taking issue with India buying Russian energy. Those purchases help fuel Putin’s war machine, and many people are rightfully disappointed that India has not severed ties with Russia. The problem is Trump singling out India while he himself often pushes Russian rhetoric and backs off his demands, while also making concessions to China on issues like foreign students and chips.
Trump clearly has no moral qualms with nations doing business with Russia (Trump has even floated the idea of U.S.-Russia economic cooperation in the Arctic. His anger towards India is due to Modi’s refusal to flatter Trump’s ego.
This is the danger of putting a hyper-narcissist like Trump in office. He is blowing up decades of diligent work by Western diplomats to draw India closer to the Western sphere. The power of a democratic alliance built on North America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India would be significant, and it seemed within reach until recently, given India’s desire to seek economic benefit from closer ties with powerful Western economies and India’s desire to counterbalance China.
But now, India is going the other way, and it’s due in no small part to Donald Trump’s narcissism and arrogance.
The hyper-nightmare
At a recent gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Modi, Putin, and Xi were all smiles:
The West now faces the hyper-nightmare scenario. The United States has pushed India, China, and Russia closer together, while simultaneously alienating its allies in Canada, Europe, and Asia through a combination of tariffs and annexation threats.
China’s manufacturing power, Russia’s energy reserves, and India’s massive working-age demographic could now be combined into a force that rebalances global power away from the West at the worst possible moment. A U.S. seeking to contain China (if Trump even cares about that at this point), could find itself with fewer close allies to help, at a time when the U.S. debt burden is creating growing constraints on medium to long-term U.S. power projection capabilities.
America’s way out of this trap was to win India over to the West (or keep it neutral at worst), cultivate deeper ties with allies who could ease the burden on the U.S. while the U.S. remained the strongest Western power, and bolster its global reputation to match hard power with the cultural power that expands U.S. cultural reach and influence.
Instead, Trump is pushing India away, pushing allies away, wrecking the U.S. global image, and squandering America’s soft power.
After all, the Trump Administration appears to be deliberately pushing India into China and Russia’s arms. As noted by Yaroslav Trofimov in the Wall Street Journal, once-frigid India-China ties have warmed up:
“India is the cornerstone of America’s strategy to prevent a Chinese domination of Asia. Sino-Indian relations have remained nearly frozen since deadly clashes along the two giants’ disputed border erupted in 2020. Modi traveled to China for the first time in seven years after Trump’s abrupt move to impose 50% tariffs on India, half of them as punishment for New Delhi buying cheap Russian oil, sparked widespread outrage in India.
These tariffs are higher than those enacted against China, America’s strategic rival, and have been accompanied by many statements by Trump administration officials that amplify Indian anger. Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, caused particular outcry in recent days by using caste terminology as he said that Indian “Brahmins are profiteering at the expense of the Indian people” with the Russia oil trade. The Trump administration so far hasn’t enacted any additional sanctions on Russia itself, despite repeated threats to do so.”
Let’s not mince words. This is a disastrous situation, and it underscores the need for Canada to strengthen our armed forces, deepen ties with democratic allies in Europe and Asia, and reduce our dependence on the United States. As long as the U.S. remains beholden to the narcissistic whims of one man, Canada must pursue further strategic autonomy and cultivate reliable allies to the greatest extent possible.
Spencer Fernando
Image – Twitter
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