Canada is uniquely positioned to be a trusted ‘arsenal of democracy’ in an age when warfare is rapidly changing, but only if we seize the opportunity now.
Among the challenges Canada faces right now, four stand out:
Low productivity.
High youth unemployment.
Decades of defence underinvestment have eroded our defence industrial base.
Acute geopolitical vulnerability as the United States becomes less reliable.
While there is no perfect one-size-fits-all solution to these challenges, there is a way to make meaningful progress on all of them:
Turning Canada into a global hub for military drone production and drone operation training.
Becoming a global leader in drone production is possible for Canada, particularly when you consider what Ukraine has been able to achieve under immense pressure. With a per capita GDP roughly 1/10th the size of Canada, and with a large portion of its population engaged in frontline combat/support, Ukraine has raised drone production to 4 million per year:
Per the Kyiv Post:
“After nearly four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has turned itself into a drone superpower – producing about 4 million unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) a year.
These include long-range strike drones and inexpensive first-person-view (FPV) models, which pilots control using small onboard cameras.
Such figures were cited in a Bloomberg report, which noted that the US produces roughly 100,000 military drones annually.
“It’s not just the quantity of drones, it’s the variety,” said RAND analyst Michael Bohnert. “Probably more than all NATO countries combined right now.”
Given the lack of immediate wartime pressure and a higher per capita GDP, Canada’s potential drone production capacity is much higher. Of course, this doesn’t account for the fact that Ukraine has a much larger percentage of its population focused on drone production due to the existential nature of its fight against fascist Russia’s invasion. Still, there is no reason to think that Canada couldn’t become a world leader in drone production, and alongside it, drone operation training.
Now, we’ll look at a plan for making this happen:
Distributed production and training
To start with, Canada benefits from its large landmass. Our vast amount of open, sparsely populated territory means setting up drone testing/training facilities is quite easy compared to more densely populated nations. Our distance from potential frontlines in future conflicts (Eastern Europe, Taiwan Strait) gives us some protection from strategic missile/bomber strikes. And in the North – where a conflict on Canadian territory could occur – drones will be a big part of augmenting our human presence in the region.
Working with Canadian manufacturers and universities, Canada could set up dual drone production/training hubs across the nation. These facilities could feature a dedicated drone manufacturing centre (built based on Ukraine’s knowledge of best practices in drone mass production), a drone testing area, and a drone training school. The facilities could include housing for workers and students, in order to facilitate convenience and raise productivity. One facility minimum could be built in each province and territory, with northern facilities being built near existing military infrastructure to enhance our presence in the North. In the North, the construction of housing for workers and students could help bootstrap new communities to raise our population in the region and strengthen our sovereignty. And these facilities could be linked with new autonomous warfare institutes at major Canadian universities.
Chipping away at multiple problems
While Canada’s productivity challenges have been built up over time, and while government intervention and military spending are not a complete substitute for reducing barriers to investment, focusing on drone production could help shift Canada into a higher-growth path. If public funds were directed towards Canadian manufacturers, tech companies, and aerospace firms, and if universities were part of the effort to stand up drone-training, drone R&D facilities, and drone-related AI institutes, Canada could develop capabilities in autonomous warfare that could translate into civilian uses. After all, think of the economic applications of massive fleets of autonomous ground, air, and sea vehicles. Shifting from military to civilian application would not be difficult, and – as we see in countries with robust military industrial complexes – many top Canadian military drone producers would also end up as large private sector firms.
Further, at a time when Canada’s economy needs new sources of growth, defence spending can be such a source (though the long-term implications must be considered):
Helping Canadian youth
A full-scale national effort to turn Canada into a drone production and drone operation training hub would bring significant benefits for young Canadians. There would be a huge need for drone manufacturing workers and drone operators, and the government could prioritize young people for those jobs. In particular, many young Canadians already have skills that can translate to drone operation, as Ukraine has discovered with the video game skills of younger generations, creating rapid adaptation to drone warfare. Housing construction, testing base construction, and training facility construction across Canada would also generate significant demand for construction employment, creating another avenue of employment for young people. A surge of funding for Canadian tech companies and Canadian universities, alongside grants and tax credit incentives for those studying drone operations, would create opportunities for many young Canadians who are currently struggling.
Deterrence and credibility
Of course, these real benefits are only ancillary to the main reason Canada should become a leader in military drone production: Deterring potential foes and demonstrating credibility to our allies. The nature of warfare is rapidly changing, and while expensive platforms like fighter jets, missiles, ships, submarines, self-propelled artillery, and tanks remain important, the ability to both mass-produce drones and rapidly iterate drone designs will be crucial to success in future conflicts. As the war in Ukraine has made clear, many expensive and high-end systems – whether aircraft, large naval vessels, or advanced missiles- could be rapidly attrited, making mass production of inexpensive drones key to reducing casualties and sustaining offensive operations.
Currently, Canada and many of our allies are far behind potential adversaries like Russia when it comes to our readiness for drone warfare:
While the government is taking steps in the right direction, those steps must be accelerated.
Security and self-sufficiency
With a strong tech sector, a well-educated population, a large aerospace sector, a proud military history, and potential distance from the front lines of future conflicts, Canada is well-positioned to be a top producer of drones and drone pilots, as well as a leader in autonomous warfare. By investing billions now, we can become more secure and more self-sufficient in our national defence, and produce enough to help our allies. At a time when we cannot be certain of American assistance, being overly reliant on expensive U.S. defence platforms is simply untenable. And while we are not going to ‘catch’ up to the U.S. or China in the short-term when it comes to the production of advanced fighter jets, we can – working with Ukraine and other allies – become a leader in drone production and autonomous warfare.
A mindset shift
As Canadians, a strong national defence is no longer something for the future. It is a necessity now. It must be treated as an emergency, and short-term budgetary restraint must come second to surging the funds necessary to scale up drone production and training. After decades of defence underinvestment that have led to substantial vulnerability, let’s make the most of this moment to turn our cities, towns, and northern communities into booming hubs of defence production, innovation, and national resilience.
Spencer Fernando
Image – YouTube
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