Amid global instability, only one party is proposing a defence posture aligned with the scale of modern threats.
In Canadian politics, parties rarely encourage imitation. Yet the Canadian Future Party (CFP) has taken the unusual step of inviting its rivals to adopt its platform, particularly on national defence.
The cover page of their policy book states, “Mr. Carney, Mr. Poilievre, Steal our ideas – Please!“
On Twitter, CFP Leader Dominic Cardy repeated that call:
“The @cdnfutureparty repeats its offer to the @CPC_HQ and the @liberal_party: Steal our platform, please.”
Big Ideas Often Start Small
The dominant parties of our day all started small or evolved from/merged with parties that started small. Further, the quality of an idea or set of ideas is not determined solely by how many people believe it. The truth often has few defenders and many opponents, at least for a time.
I say this to preempt dismissal of the CFP’s ideas based on the size of the party. Right now, the CFP is putting forward ideas this country needs to hear, particularly when it comes to national defence.
Is Canada a Serious Nation?
Serious nations take national defence seriously. With a population of over 40 million people, a high per capita GDP, significant manufacturing capacity, and a high overall technology level, there is no excuse for Canada’s current lack of military strength. Being dependent on others for our national defence is something we have chosen as a country through the neglect of our responsibilities, and it is increasingly untenable in a deteriorating global order.
The world is rapidly destabilizing as the U.S. pulls back on its commitments under the erratic and authoritarian-style leadership of Donald Trump. China is undertaking one of the largest military buildups in history, and Russia remains a serious threat, not only to Canada’s European allies but in the northern defence perimeter.
Thus, Canada must soon answer the following question:
Are we a serious country?
If we wish to answer in the affirmative, we must choose to rebuild our military.
Among current proposals to strengthen the CAF, the CFP’s defence platform stands out for its clarity and scale.
Canada as a “Northern Democratic Superpower”
Slow, incremental progress won’t be enough to address the immense challenge posed by a rapidly changing world and threats to our sovereignty from the United States. We can’t afford to wait.
The Liberals and Conservatives have moved in the right direction, pledging to hit the 2% NATO target by 2030. While both parties have hinted that they could do so sooner, no tangible commitment has been made to do so. Given that timeline, they are falling short of the moment.
Remember, many of our closest allies are moving to 3%, 4%, and even 5% of GDP on defence. Even countries with larger budget deficits (as a percentage of GDP) and lower credit ratings than Canada are expanding their militaries. If they can do it, so can we.
The CFP appears to recognize this. They are proposing that Canada reach 2.25% of GDP on defence immediately and reach 5% of GDP by 2030, to turn Canada into a “Northern Democratic Superpower.” This would mean spending roughly $182.5 billion yearly on national defence in 2030 (using the PBO forecast of Canada’s GDP in 2029-2030), while the Liberals & Conservatives would be spending roughly $73.0 billion annually, assuming they make good on their 2030 promise.
This means the CFP plan would spend $109.5 billion more per year on national defence than either the Liberals or Conservatives.
That is a substantial level of spending, which would require significant restraint in other areas of government. However, such restraint, when combined with a program like Canadian Sovereignty Bonds (discussed in more detail here), could make such an increase feasible.
It is worth noting that our NATO ally, Poland, despite having a credit rating of A-, is spending 4.7% of its GDP on its military while running deficits. Canada’s AA+ rating is higher, and we can borrow at lower rates than Poland, as Poland’s 10-year bond yields are 5.29%, compared to Canada’s 10-year bond yields of 3.23%.
Further, the cost of being plunged into a war unprepared would be orders of magnitude larger than expanding the CAF now.
A Sovereign Defence Industrial Base
The CFP’s defence plan emphasizes defence industry resiliency, which would increase the multiplier effect from increased defence spending, keeping investment inside Canada rather than having it go to purchases of weapons and equipment built elsewhere.
The plan notably focuses on leveraging our existing defence partnerships to strengthen our domestic production:
“A sovereign defence strategy will focus on reshoring manufacturing, securing access to rare earths and high-fragmentation steels like HF-1, and enabling Canadian firms to design and build advanced systems here at home. We will invest in domestic alternatives to U.S.-restricted technology, including course-correcting artillery, electronic warfare systems, and rare earth-based defence components. We will work with partners like Ukraine who are on the cutting edge of military modernization. We are completely committed to Ukraine’s defence, but as a strong partner country we also see opportunities to learn from their approaches and industries. Canada cannot continue to outsource its security and economic independence. It’s time to reclaim control of our resources, rebuild our industrial strength, and chart a sovereign path forward.”
The CFP also plans to create a dedicated department called Munitions Canada – operating independently of the current procurement process – to ensure Canada can meet our ammunition needs and assist our allies:
“A Canadian Future Party government will establish Munitions Canada, a dedicated Department responsible for the production, licensing, and storage of munitions. Munitions Canada will report directly to the Minister of National Defence and operate independently from traditional procurement systems. It will manage raw materials, stockpiles, licensing, and production facilities, acquiring foreign technology and expertise as necessary. It will have the authority to establish Crown Corporations or issue grants and loans to support Canadian production. Munitions Canada will ensure that Canada has the volume and diversity of ammunition needed to support its armed forces and allies. It will monitor global trends and maintain close coordination with allied needs to ensure readiness for future conflicts. With the conflict in Ukraine showing the brutal pace of modern munitions use, this capability is no longer optional. It is essential.”
A Time for Ambition
At a time when more Canadians are waking up to the importance of a strong national defence, we need our leaders to act.
While the two main parties are still stuck between an acknowledgement of the scale of the threats we face, and a desire to pretend everything is normal, Dominic Cardy and the CFP deserve credit for presenting an ambitious defence program that would reclaim Canada’s embrace of our full military and industrial potential as exemplified in the First and Second World Wars. The CFP’s commitment to a strong national defence is in keeping with Canada’s proud history of national strength, sovereignty, and values-based leadership.
With the United States retreating from global leadership and redirecting its strategic focus in ways that strain alliances, Canada has an opportunity to step up, both for our national security and to help democratic allies resist rising authoritarian threats. The Liberals and Conservatives would be wise to borrow from the CFP’s defence strategy, in whole or in part. Canada’s safety may depend on it.
You can read the full Canadian Future Party policy platform here.
Spencer Fernando
Image – YouTube
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