POLL: Liberals Lead Conservatives 33% To 29%

This latest poll is one of the few to show Erin O’Toole’s approval going up.

A new poll by Abacus Data shows the Liberals with a narrow lead over the Conservatives.

The survey puts the Liberals at 33% – exactly where they finished in the 2019 election.

The Conservatives by contrast are at 29% – down five points from the 2019 results.

The NDP is at 19%, the Greens at 8%, and the Bloc at 7%.

The Conservatives lead in BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, while the Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

Approval ratings

When it comes to approval ratings, Canadians are split on Trudeau, with 37% giving him a positive rating and 38% giving him a negative rating.

For O’Toole, this Abacus poll is a rare bright spot for him lately, with positive opinions of him up 2 points to 22%, while negative opinions are down 1 point, to 31%.

34% have positive opinions of Jagmeet Singh, compared to 24% who have a negative view.

Can we trust the polls?

Looking at the accuracy of the Abacus poll in 2019, they were off by 1 point on the final Liberal numbers, and off by 2 points on the final Conservative numbers. They got the NDP number correct, were off by 1 on the Greens, and got both the Bloc and the PPC correct as well.

So, while it’s impossible to know for sure if a poll is accurate, the important thing to look for is the trend, and the trend so far shows the Conservatives consistently trailing the Liberals federally and in the biggest battleground of Ontario.

Erin O’Toole has a chance today to make up some of that ground with his CPC convention speech, and upcoming polls will start to paint the picture of whether he’s done that or not.

Spencer Fernando