Donald Trump’s political power – and his ability to push U.S. policy in an authoritarian & imperialist direction – largely stems from the perception that he and his allies, like Elon Musk, have a unique connection with the American public. The defeat of a Trump & Musk-backed candidate in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election significantly dents that perception.
You may be thinking, what does a Wisconsin Supreme Court election possibly have to do with Canada? That’s a good question, and it deserves a good answer, because as counterintuitive as it may seem, what happened in Wisconsin has implications for our country.
Let’s start there, by looking at exactly what happened in Wisconsin.
In the U.S., State Supreme Court Justices are elected by the voters, and the court has long been divided along partisan lines, befitting Wisconsin’s status as a swing state with a near-equal number of Democrats and Republicans. Control over the court has a direct implication for national politics in the U.S., as the state redistricting process – deciding how congressional districts are drawn – is often highly partisan and ends up being ruled on by the state court. Thus, a liberal-leaning court means it’s more likely that districts will be drawn in a way that leads to fewer Republican congressional wins in the state, while a conservative-leaning court means the opposite. And given that the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, what happens in Wisconsin could help decide control of Congress – and thus control of investigative power/ability to stymie the Executive branch – in the next election.
Had the Republican backed candidate – Brad Schimel – won the election, the balance of the court would have flipped from 4-3 liberal-leaning to 3-4 conservative leaning. It should be noted that ‘conservative’ in this context is referring to American conservatism, denoting a perspective significantly to the right of most Canadian conservatives.
Musk goes all-in and loses
Having established the importance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, let’s look at the political implications. The Republican Party – and in particular Elon Musk – went all in on the campaign. As noted by Politico, Musk and his allies sought to ‘nationalize’ the race by elevating the rhetoric to near apocalyptic levels:
“Musk catapulted the state Supreme Court election into national view, vocally backing conservative candidate Brad Schimel — who also clinched President Donald Trump’s endorsement — and pouring millions into the efforts to get him elected. The Wisconsin election, Musk claimed, would decide the trajectory of not only the whole country, but perhaps all of “Western civilization” and “the future of the world,” as he said in a Spaces conversation on X hours before polls closed Tuesday.”
Musk spent heavily on the race, putting USD 25 million into the effort to elect Schimel.
Instead, Schimel was decisively defeated. Democratic-backed candidate Susan Crawford, a Circuit Court Judge, won 55% of the vote, while Schimel won 45%. For comparison, Donald Trump won 49.6% of the vote in Wisconsin in 2024, while Kamala Harris won 48.74%, and elections in Wisconsin are generally 50/50. Thus, a 10-point margin is notable.
The perception that this was a direct rebuke of Musk is also important here. Musk made himself the face of the campaign against Crawford, and strode into Wisconsin in a way that many found off-putting. This was a problem for Schimel’s campaign, as Musk has become quite unpopular:
2 takeaways from Tuesday:
“If you are Republican candidate running in a swing state, you don’t want Elon Musk anywhere near you… He is political poison!”
BIG Dem swings in very red FL-1/FL-6 look a lot like KS-4 in 2017, which foreshadowed big Dem gains in 2018.
As a result of Susan Crawford’s decisive win, Musk – and Trump by extension – look weaker than they did yesterday. And this is good news for Canada.
A less powerful Trump will be much more constrained
From an institutional perspective, Donald Trump is already incredibly constrained. Congress could easily revoke his ability to impose tariffs, and could kibosh any talk of invading Greenland and annexing Canada. The U.S. President has very little authority over U.S. domestic politics, assuming Congress uses its power.
And that’s the problem.
Trump – despite failing to win 50% of the popular vote and narrowly defeating Kamala Harris – has nonetheless managed to accrue tremendous power. He has done so because of his control over the Republican base, which cows potential opponents within his party. Many Republicans have become convinced that Trump has a unique and special connection with half of the American electorate. This is why they fail to push back when he proposes absurd policies (massive tariffs, invasion of allies, etc.). Even when Trump does something unpopular, many Republicans are scared that he will be able to end their careers by denouncing them as disloyal, and that his hold over half the country will transform unpopular policies into popular ones.
Musk also exerts significant control, given his status as the world’s richest person and owner of an influential social media platform. Musk has threatened to fund candidates against any Republicans who oppose Trump’s agenda, giving Republicans a powerful incentive to tow the line.
But now, Musk looks like a liability. He just lost, and lost big. There appears to be a mounting backlash against Trump, a backlash that will likely strengthen if tariffs push the U.S. into a recession and drive up the cost of living. If Musk’s influence continues to weaken (there are already reports he will be stepping aside from the Department of Government Efficiency – DOGE) and if Trump’s popularity dips into the low 40s or high 30s, elected officials in swing states and swing districts will see it is in their interest to distance themselves from him. Given that the election in Wisconsin, as well as elections to replace Republican Representatives appointed to cabinet posts, showed a large swing toward the Democrats, there will be a growing sense that Trump’s connection to the voters is loosening.
If that perception deepens and even a fraction of Republican representatives and Senators stop aligning with Trump, he will lose the power to impose his tariff agenda and will be unable to launch invasions of allied nations. The more Trump looks politically weak, the more constrained he becomes. The more constrained he becomes, the less likely it is that the U.S. will pursue further hostile moves against Canada and our allies. The Wisconsin Supreme Court election weakened Trump, and that’s why it’s good news for Canada.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
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