Why Canadians Are Warming to a Stronger Armed Forces
The Canadian Armed Forces have been underfunded for decades. Under both Liberal & Conservative Governments, Canada has failed to spend 2% of GDP on our military, a failure that has been left unresolved despite our country pledging to do so.
In 2006, we agreed – alongside our NATO allies – to link military spending targets to GDP, and that pledge was strengthened in 2014. But during that time, we never hit that target. This understanding continues to this day, and not even Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 was enough to convince the federal government to make good on our promise to our allies.
While it would be easy to pin the blame solely on politicians for this, the truth is that the Canadian public rarely prioritized defence spending. Did you ever witness a mid-election mass protest calling for a large military buildup? Did you ever see Canadian defence companies actively lobbying on news channels for more military investment? Did you ever see an election debate turn on military-related questions?
National defence has long taken a back seat in this country because most Canadians assumed that if Canada ever got into real trouble, the United States would be there to save us. Most of our politicians felt the same way and realized they had a better chance of winning votes by promising more social program spending and more tax cuts than they did by promising to build up the CAF.
So, we got the national defence policy we asked for. We put a low priority on military strength, and our military strength eroded.
But now, we are in a very different world. The United States appears intent on distancing itself from its democratic allies and getting closer to Russia, while issuing annexation threats against NATO partners like Greenland. The sovereignty of Canada has been repeatedly questioned by the U.S. President. The U.S. has even floated the idea of cooperating with Russia in the Arctic, an ominous development given that both countries question many of Canada’s Northern territorial claims.
In this new environment, it is now Canadian politicians lagging behind the Canadian public when it comes to views on rebuilding the military. There has been a significant shift in public opinion that hasn’t quite yet filtered out to our political parties.
To get a sense of this shift, let’s look at the results of a recent Abacus Data poll that focused on military spending. According to the survey, 26% of Canadians say “loosening budget restrictions to increase Canada’s military spending” is a “very good idea,” while 24% say it is a “good idea.” 24% say it is an “acceptable idea,” while 9% say it is a “bad idea” and 3% say it is a “very bad” idea. When we add up those who say it is a very good/good idea and those who say it is a very bad/bad idea, we get 51% (due to rounding) in favour and 12% against.
While the 51% figure is positive, the relative lack of opposition is the key takeaway. It means Canadian leaders across the political spectrum have a lot of room to maneuver if they wish to support a military expansion. Canadians are expressing an openness to deficit spending for the military, which is unsurprising given the salience of the threat to our sovereignty.
Abacus also reminded poll respondents that Canada fell short of our 2% NATO target in 2024 (spending only 1.3%), and mentioned that current Defence Minister Bill Blair is pledging to hit the target in 2027. Respondents were then asked whether Canada should spend ‘much more,’ ‘somewhat more,’ ‘the same amount,’ ‘somewhat less,’ or ‘much less’ on defence.
28% said much more, 37% said somewhat more, 17% said the same amount, 4% said somewhat less, and 2% said much less. Combined, 65% want more spending, while 6% want less. Yet again, this shows how much political space Canadian politicians have from the public when it comes to ramping up military spending.
32% of Canadians also support a “new $100 special levy or tax to raise money to increase Canada’s defence budget,” while 25% are opposed. Abacus notes support for such a levy is up 12 points since March of 2024, while opposition is down 19 points since then.
Further, 64% want the government to stop buying military equipment from the U.S., while 9% oppose halting such purchases. This indicates the extent to which Canadians now see the U.S. as an unreliable nation.
What’s the limit?
Is there a limit on Canadians’ support for a more robust military?
Yes, and that limit is mandatory military service. While 26% (12% strongly & 14% somewhat) support mandatory military service for young Canadians, 45% (28% strongly & 17% somewhat) oppose it.
With our country in the middle of an election, this is a rare moment where Canadian leaders could benefit by promising to expand the military. The public demands it. The times require it. And as long as they don’t propose a national draft, they will be in good standing with voters who are acutely aware of Canada’s vulnerability and want it to be addressed.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
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