The Canadian economy contracted 0.2% in February according to Statistics Canada, a decline from 0.4% growth in January.
The decline was led by the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas sector, which fell 2.5%. The services-producing sector dropped 0.1%. Construction fell 0.5%, largely due to a 0.9% drop in residential building construction, partially offset by a 0.6% rise in non-residential construction. Manufacturing was a bright spot, with the sector up 0.6% on strong machinery manufacturing growth of 5.9% and 4.2% growth in motor vehicle parts manufacturing. Primary metal manufacturing fell 2.3%. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors declined.
It would be wise to avoid reading too much into this decline. While the U.S. Q1 GDP drop of 0.3% was clearly due to companies ramping up imports to front-run tariffs, here in Canada, storms negatively impacted economic activity in Central and Eastern Canada, along with BC. There is evidence of a potential rebound, with Statistics Canada’s advance information indicating a 0.1% GDP increase in March. The agency estimates GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1. That would give Canada a rate of growth 0.7 points above that in the U.S., indicating the extent to which tariffs are negatively impacting the U.S. economy.
Spencer Fernando
If this piece left you clearer than it found you, that's the point. I write for readers who want to think past the week, to see the longer pattern beneath the daily story, and to come away steadier rather than more agitated.
That longer view gets built somewhere. On Patreon, essay by essay, I'm constructing The Long Work, a body of analysis meant to outlast the news cycle that prompted it. The readers there make it possible. No subsidies, no strings. The work answers to them.
$8/month to read it as it's built, and to have a hand in building it.