In late 2024/early 2025, the Australian Liberal-National Coalition (a centre-right/right-wing alliance representing conservatism in Australia) led by 5-10 points over the centre-left Australian Labor Party. In the two-party-preference vote (where last-place candidates are eliminated until a candidate has a majority of votes), the L/NP led by 2-4 points. As in Canada, however, the ‘Trump factor’ severely damaged the conservative side, leading to a centre-left victory.
In April, the U.S. President imposed 10% tariffs on Australia, a puzzling move given Australia has a trade deficit with the United States. The move generated significant discontent in the country, and Peter Dutton, the conservative leader, found himself in a difficult position given his praise of Trump early in the campaign. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the Labor Party leader, linked Dutton to Trump during the campaign. The polls tightened ahead of election day.
On election day, Labor finished with 86 seats (+9) and 34.60% (up 2.1). The L/NP finished with 39 seats (-19) and 31.70% (down 4.0). Echoing Canada’s election, Dutton lost his seat. In the two-preference vote, Labor finished with 55.4%, ahead of the L/NP at 44.6%. What looked like a sure conservative victory a few months ago turned into the biggest Labor Party win since 1946. As in Canada, a centre-left party facing defeat managed to regain substantial popularity by positioning itself as the ‘anti-Trump’ force defending the nation.
Were it not for Donald Trump’s erratic words and actions in his second term, Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton would almost certainly be the Prime Ministers of Canada and Australia, respectively, and both would have retained their seats.
Looking at these two elections, as well as successful centre-right parties in the West that bucked the trend by repudiating Trump early and often (Germany’s CDU, for example), it’s clear that any tinge of connection to the U.S. President is harmful to the electoral prospects of conservative parties in the West. Failing to distance from Trump causes brand damage that raises the likelihood of defeat. Voters who cannot directly vote against Trump can do the next best thing: Vote against whichever party reminds them of Trump.
Trump’s unique brand of America First nationalism makes no room for the nationalism of other countries. By issuing threats and demands for submission, Trump triggers nationalism abroad in response. This nationalism struggles to find a conservative expression in the West, however, because a portion of Western conservatives identify with Trump, causing internal party fissures and decision paralysis. Successful Western conservatives like Ontario Premier Doug Ford and incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz chose to risk losing voters on their right flank to avoid losing centre-right/centrist voters and vigorously campaigned against the U.S. President.
A key challenge for Western conservatives is that while Trumpism (an increasingly authoritarian, big-government, anti-trade, and anti-rule-of-law ideology) is largely antithetical to key tenets of Western conservatism, it is still labelled as conservatism, contains some elements of conservatism (aggressive anti-crime messaging, pro-business rhetoric, immigration restriction) and thus appeals to enough conservatives to create a perceived link between Trump and other Western conservative parties, while being deeply unpopular among the broader population.
Conservative parties in the West thus face a choice: Distance from Trumpism to maintain ideological coherence at the risk of losing votes on the right, or align with Trumpism to hold the right at the risk of losing votes in the centre. If recent history is any guide, the former is the most viable path, both ethically and electorally.
Spencer Fernando
Image – YouTube
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