Authoritarian states don’t want democracies to rearm, and thus have an incentive to push anti-rearmament narratives, often using our own citizens to do so.
Ask yourself the following question:
Do China and Russia want to see Canada and our NATO allies rearm?
The answer is obvious.
They would both prefer to see Canada and our allies remain as weak as possible.
Now, ask yourself why that is.
Why would Russia and China not want to see democratic nations rearm themselves?
Because they want to use war and the threat of war to advance their interests without resistance.
Let’s start with Russia.
Speaking at a U.S. Senate hearing, the Chair of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said he believed Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin would not stop at Ukraine:
“Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) asked Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth whether Putin would “stop at Ukraine” in a series of rapid-fire questions on foreign conflicts.
“I don’t believe he is,” Caine told the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on armed services.”
Likewise, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Services, says Germany has intelligence Putin plans to test the alliance by launching ‘confrontations’ that fall below the level of outright war (perhaps a reprise of Russia’s ‘little green men’ tactics in Ukraine where Russian troops without identification and insignia were used to invade Ukraine while maintaining ‘plausible deniability’):
“Without detailing the nature of his intelligence sources, Kahl said Russian officials were envisaging confrontations that fell short of a full military engagement that would test whether the U.S. would really live up to its mutual aid obligations under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
“They don’t need to dispatch armies of tanks for that,” he said. “It’s enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities.”
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea involved occupation of buildings and offices by Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms and civilian clothes, who came to be known as the “little green men” when Moscow initially denied their identity.”
With Russia likely to ‘test’ NATO in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), it should be noted that Canada has roughly 1,900 CAF personnel deployed throughout the year in Operation Reassurance in Latvia, an operation launched under the Harper Government in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and continued by the Liberal Government.
Along with our allies, Canada is helping to deter Russian aggression in Europe by making it clear that an attack on Latvia would mean an attack on Canadian and allied personnel. The more Canada rearms, the more our presence in Europe can be enhanced, and the better-equipped our troops will be, further deterring Russia.
Of course, Russia doesn’t want to be deterred. It doesn’t want to be held back from invading others. It doesn’t want to face well-armed democratic adversaries. And in Canada’s case, Russia seeks to expand its presence in the Arctic, a move that could compromise Canadian sovereignty and territorial integrity. They don’t want to see a Canadian Arctic military buildup.
The same holds for China.
China is currently undertaking an immense military expansion, and it’s making many countries nervous. For example, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles is calling on China to explain why it is building up at such a rapid pace:
“On Sunday morning, Marles asserted that “what we have seen from China is the single biggest increase in military capability and build up in conventional sense, by any country since the end of the Second World War”.
It is not just the size of the military build-up that concerns other countries, he told reporters.
“It’s the fact that it is happening without strategic reassurance. It’s happening without a clear strategic intent on the part of China… what we want to see is strategic transparency and strategic reassurance be provided by China, and an understanding of why it is needed to have such an extraordinary military build-up.”
As noted by the Council on Foreign Relations in their analysis of the 2024 Pentagon Report on China’s military, China is rapidly expanding its capability to strike targets far from the Chinese mainland:
“Third, China is building a global military and investing in capabilities that will allow it to project power far beyond the first island chain. In 2023, the PLAN “continued to grow its ability to perform missions beyond the First Island Chain” and in the near term it “will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), notably enhancing the PRC’s power projection capability.” The PLAAF’s bomber fleet now offers “a long-range standoff precision strike capability that can range targets in the Second Island Chain from home airfields in mainland China.” The report notes China “is seeking to expand its overseas logistics and basing infrastructure” and that it “probably has considered other countries as locations for PLA military logistics facilities, including but not limited to Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Gabon, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan.” Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner remarked during an event introducing the report that, “The demand from the PRC for these things [overseas bases and facilities] is vast. They will take almost anything they can get globally. Their list of targets is very, very long.”
China is also making rapid technological advancements when it comes to combat aircraft, raising the potential that the PRC could field not only a large mass of forces, but a large mass of high-quality forces.
China wants to shift the global balance of power in its favour. That means it wants nations like Canada (we participate in freedom of navigation missions in the Taiwan Strait) to be weaker. The last thing they want to see is Canada produce/purchase ships and submarines. They don’t want to see us become leaders in hypersonic weapons and drones. They would prefer we remain largely undefended.
And, like Russia, China has an increasing interest in the Arctic, and would prefer to see Canada keep our North largely undefended.
The warmongering myth
This is why I am wary whenever I see an online influencer, on the far left or the far right, who claims that NATO countries are ‘warmongering’ by rearming, or are all of a sudden extra worried about government spending when it comes to national defence.
Such framing, particularly the ‘warmongering’ rhetoric, is absurd given that this NATO rearmament (most countries are now at 2% of GDP on defence and are heading higher) is a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s immense military expansion.
Claiming that responding to Russia and China’s military expansion is ‘warmongering’ would be like claiming that putting a lock on your door means you support break-ins.
NATO military expansion is the opposite of warmongering, since it increases deterrence and thus makes war less likely.
And of course, you’ll note that those who demonize Canada and NATO’s rearmament never criticize Russia for turning into a total war economy, and have nothing negative to say about China expanding its already-large military.
This should not be viewed simply as harmless ignorance. Russia and China both have a keen interest in influencing politics in the West and in spreading narratives that weaken support for rearmament. Frankly, it would be surprising if they weren’t paying influencers to push anti-NATO, anti-rearmament messages. Sadly, many don’t even need to be paid, as Russian and Chinese propaganda narratives have spread widely on social media and taken hold among a significant portion of far-left and far-right Canadians.
In this environment, it is imperative for Canadians of good conscience across the political spectrum to stand with NATO (the greatest defensive alliance the world has ever known), and to push back against the spread of Beijing & Moscow-created narratives that would leave our nation and our allies undefended.
Spencer Fernando
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