If we invest wisely, we can turn years of defence underinvestment into an advantage.
One of the many reasons Italy proved so ineffective in the Second World War is that the country rearmed ‘too early,’ failed to develop sufficient domestic production capacity, and thus entered a major global conflict with outdated equipment it struggled to replace.
While this was ultimately good news since it made the Axis powers easier to defeat, it is still a warning to all nations that rearming can’t simply be about making large equipment purchases in a short period.
Instead, rearmament must have three foci:
Addressing short-term equipment shortages.
Building domestic production capacity.
Investing in the weapons of the future.
If handled correctly, this can give nations with small legacy militaries a chance to leapfrog others.
Consider that if a future war is fought largely by drones and hypersonic weapons, a nation that invests in those weapons now will have an efficiency advantage over a nation burdened with large amounts of outdated legacy equipment.
In a way, this is an advantage that both Canada and the United States possessed in the Second World War. While both nations should have built up sooner, the late buildup meant that most of what was produced was modern (for the time) and created an efficient force.
With the world heading toward a new era of great power competition and the risk of war rising, Canada has an opportunity to carve out the same advantage, but only if we invest wisely.
Part of investing wisely means taking a ‘barbell’ approach, with a large focus on proven systems combined with calculated bets on how to best position ourselves for the future of warfare.
Thus, Canada would be wise to invest in purchasing modern fighter jets from our allies, alongside building robust air defences, and ramping up domestic production of 155mm artillery shells, as those will have an important role to play in whatever future conflict we may find ourselves in.
At the same time, we should invest in the mass production of drones and seek to become a world leader in hypersonic aircraft and weapon development.
When it comes to hypersonics (Mach 5 and above), here are three reasons this should be an area of focus for Canada:
Leapfrog potential
While Canada could (and should) join the Global Combat Air Programme alongside the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy, that is the only realistic prospect for Canada to have any large role in the production of sixth-generation fighters, given our lack of domestic fighter jet production.
However, given that even the hypersonic weapon leaders (USA, China) are in relatively early stages of development, Canada could, with sustained investment, be one of the top-five hypersonic weapon developers in a relatively short period.
And there is already some initial movement on this file.
As reported by PayloadSpace.com, Canadian company NordSpace is moving ahead with three hypersonic products:
NordSpace, the Ontario-based space tech startup, is establishing the Supersonic and Hypersonic Applications Research Platform (SHARP), which aims to grow the country’s hypersonic capabilities with three new products.
SHARP Arrow: A fixed-wing, rocket-powered, uncrewed aircraft built for research, reconnaissance, and intercept missions, capable of launching from and landing on a standard airport runway.
SHARP Sabre: A modified version of the company’s suborbital Taiga rocket, which held a successful rocket engine test in January, updated to reach hypersonic speeds with larger payloads on board.
M2S-HyRock: A 3D-printed, multi-fuel, multi-purpose liquid regeneratively cooled rocket engine, built to provide the industry with a storable rocket engine.
And late last year, Canada and Australia announced a joint investment in hypersonic missile defence technology.
The Canadian government should invest in NordSpace to ramp up the scale of hypersonic development and partner with allies like France, the UK, Germany, Israel, Ukraine, and others in the joint development of hypersonic technology. This would give Canada the chance to become a leader in hypersonics, rather than a follower.
Deterrence
In a world where hostile states like Russia and China seek to use intimidation to get their way, credible deterrent capacity depends on the ability to inflict damage on potential adversaries, even if we wish to avoid conflict. Hypersonic weapons provide that ability. If Canada were able to mass-produce hypersonic missiles, drones, and aircraft, we would possess a credible deterrent against potential foes, as we could strike at enemy targets with little warning. Further, hypersonics are well-suited to efficiently defending Canada’s vast landmass, particularly in the Arctic, as their speed reduces the tyranny of distance.
Economic spin-offs
A key benefit of hypersonic weapon development is that it can also benefit the civilian economy. Consider the prosperity-enhancing effects of hypersonic airliners, hypersonic cargo aircraft, along with the advances in the space industry that dovetail with hypersonic development.
A robust Canadian hypersonic defence sector would position Canada as a leader in the civilian hypersonic industry, meaning future Canadian-owned companies could be world leaders, generating Canadian investment, Canadian jobs, and Canadian prosperity.
To the contrary, if we fail to invest in this industry, we will watch as other nations dominate, meaning we will be left with the scraps, as has been the case in so many other industries.
Spencer Fernando
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