Falling into the trap of short-term, zero-sum thinking would be an error and would risk eroding one of Canada’s greatest strengths.
Immigration in Canada is dropping, and is almost certainly going to drop further in the coming years. After the Trudeau government made the deeply irresponsible decision to raise immigration levels with little plan for how the country could accommodate such an influx, they belatedly realized their error and started to bring numbers down, a trend that continues under the Carney government.
Political pressure from the Conservatives and some provincial Premiers (notably B.C. NDP Premier David Eby) to either scrap or reform the Temporary Foreign Worker program will likely result in the curtailment of that program, a curtailment which is already underway with the federal government promising to reduce the TFW percentage of the population from 7% to 5% or lower by 2027.
As noted by Statistics Canada in mid-June, population growth in the first quarter of 2025 fell to nearly 0%, the sixth consecutive quarter of declining growth:
“From January 1 to April 1, 2025, the population of Canada increased by 20,107 people (+0.0%) to reach 41,548,787 people. This was the smallest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the population decreased by 1,232 people (-0.0%) in the wake of border restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The first quarter of 2025 (+0.0%) marked the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth (Infographic 1) following announcements by the federal government in 2024 that it would lower the levels of both temporary and permanent immigration. This was the second-slowest quarterly growth rate in Canada since comparable records began (first quarter of 1946), behind only the third quarter of 2020 (-0.0%) and tied with the fourth quarter of 2014 (+0.0%).”
To an extent, there will be a ‘self-correcting’ aspect to control over immigration-related population growth. Because so many people came to Canada seeking economic opportunities that have not manifested themselves, Canada’s attractiveness as a destination has diminished to an extent, and some people will leave Canada to seek opportunity elsewhere, even in the absence of government efforts to reduce the TFW population through choosing not to renew worker permits.
Of course, the impact on the housing market, job market, and social cohesion will not be fixed overnight. It will take time for Canada to adjust and adapt. And because we are feeling the impact of this large influx at the same time as the economy takes repeated body blows from Trump’s economically illiterate tariffs, there is significant and understandable public anger.
Addressing the challenge without losing what makes Canada unique
Because immigration presents such a tempting and divisive target (anti-immigrant sentiment generates massive attention and clicks on social media), there is a significant risk that Canada will go beyond just lowering immigration to more sustainable levels – which we must do – but will also no longer be seen as a welcoming and accepting nation.
If we went in that direction, it would be a serious error.
One of Canada’s greatest strengths is that we are seen as a country where people from around the world are not only welcome, but can also become full members of the Canadian family. No matter where someone is born, they can conceive of themselves as having the chance to become a Canadian. This has enabled us to attract talent from around the world and helped us to build one of the most prosperous and advanced nations on Earth. After all, until our recent economic stagnation, Canada was one of the wealthiest nations on a per capita GDP basis, and while we have fallen back in recent years, our highly educated population and immense natural resources mean that we should be able to climb back up that list with some better governance.
However, this climb back into the upper tier of prosperity will depend in part on continued immigration (with a focus on economic immigrants and sustainable yearly levels) and on embracing free trade with trading blocs like the European Union, CANZUK nations, Japan, South Korea, and other democracies. Because many Canadians can trace their ancestry back to the nations we want to deepen our trading relationships with, we have some built-in goodwill. Further, with the U.S. currently embracing a hostile stance on trade and immigration, the more attractive a trading partner we can make ourselves, the more potential wealth and investment we can attract and generate.
Embracing this opportunity depends on Canada staying in a mindset of mutually-beneficial abundance, rather than short-term zero-sum thinking. Another country becoming poorer doesn’t make us richer, just as another country becoming richer doesn’t make us poorer. Our allies are not trying to steal our wealth by trading with us.
We need allies and trading partners, both to strengthen our national defence and to become wealthier, particularly now that the United States has become less reliable.
A balanced approach
Addressing our very real immigration challenges while maintaining our welcoming mindset won’t be easy. It will require our leaders to be careful with their rhetoric, address public concerns without pandering to misinformation, and continue to emphasize that Canada benefits from being seen as a haven for people from around the world. And all of this will have to be done while bad-faith actors try to inflame public anger rather than assuage it.
Yet, if Canada can pull it off, we will be one of the few countries to do so. Standing out as a nation that remains open and welcoming at a time when others are closing themselves off could bring immense benefits in the long term by ensuring we can attract the best of the best from across the planet.
Spencer Fernando
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We openly welcome legal immigrants qualified for the positions we have open. We also have to remember that almost everyone starts at the bottom.
Quite true.