When you’re negotiating with someone who openly says they want to hurt you (as Trump has said about his desire to erase Canadian sovereignty through the imposition of “economic pain”), avoiding being pressured into a bad deal is a key part of negotiating effectively.
This is something Canada has clearly been keeping in mind, even as pressure to get a deal has risen. What has often been lost in this discussion is that getting a deal does not necessarily imply an improvement from Canada’s current position.
Remember, many of the deals Trump has signed with other nations have resulted in blanket tariffs of around 10%-15%, along with higher tariffs on steel and aluminum remaining in place. Right now, Canada has tariffs of 0% on the majority of goods we export to the U.S. due to CUSMA, while Canadian autos, steel, and aluminum are subject to high tariff rates.
Were we to sign the same kind of deal as most other countries which have concluded negotiations, we would be in a worse position.
We should also consider the impending U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs. While the outcome is yet to be determined, the court may rule that U.S. President Donald Trump does not have the power to unilaterally impose tariffs without the approval of the U.S. Congress. This would through Trump’s tariff agenda into chaos and increase Canada’s leverage, particularly given that tariffs are becoming unpopular and an increasing number of Republicans in the U.S. Congress are worried about losing their seats amid widespread public discontent towards Trump’s handling of the economy.
Continuing to have most Canada-US trade be tariff-free under CUSMA, and waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, is a prudent move for Canada, regardless of how much political pressure is brought upon Canada’s negotiators. In fact, that pressure could very well be a sign that Canada is approaching a moment of maximum leverage, and those who wish us ill want us to sign something bad before that moment comes.
At a time like this, we must avoid being pressured into a deal that would do long-term harm to the Canadian economy.
Spencer Fernando
If this piece left you clearer than it found you, that's the point. I write for readers who want to think past the week, to see the longer pattern beneath the daily story, and to come away steadier rather than more agitated.
That longer view gets built somewhere. On Patreon, essay by essay, I'm constructing The Long Work, a body of analysis meant to outlast the news cycle that prompted it. The readers there make it possible. No subsidies, no strings. The work answers to them.
$8/month to read it as it's built, and to have a hand in building it.