By 2050, Alberta’s population growth could give the province political weight comparable to that of Quebec.
One of the ironies of the recent increase in discussion about Alberta separation is that Alberta is poised to significantly increase its political weight and influence within Canada in the coming years. Not because of any planned political shifts (though the Carney Government seems much more supportive of Alberta than the Trudeau Government), but because of population changes.
According to a recent release from Statistics Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta are all set to increase their demographic weight between now and 2050, while Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Quebec will see a relative decrease in demographic weight.
The low-end projection for Quebec’s demographic weight in 2050 is 18.1%, while the high-end is 19.1%. For Alberta, the low-end projection of demographic weight is 13.5%, and the high-end is 16.1%. For comparison, Quebec’s current number is 21.7%, while Alberta’s is 12.1%. Thus, it’s possible that by 2050, the gap between Quebec and Alberta in demographic weight could be only two percentage points (18.1% to 16.1%). This would give Alberta a seat count similar to that of Quebec.
This is a stark contrast to the 1.4% of the population Alberta would have if it were part of the United States (likely not even as a state but as a territory without direct participation in the political process), as some separatists are pushing for. Meanwhile, as part of Canada, Alberta’s influence is set to keep growing year after year.
Spencer Fernando
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