POLL: Liberal Support Drops, O’Toole Conservatives Strong In Ontario

Abacus Data poll mirrors recent other polling showing a narrowing race.

A new poll by Abacus Data has some more good news for the Conservatives, who appear to be in a decent position following Erin O’Toole’s leadership win.

Since the last Abacus poll, the Liberals have dropped from 36% to 33%, while the Conservatives went up 1 point, from 30% to 31%.

The NDP trail far back with 18%, while the Bloc and Greens are both at 7%.

Regionally, the Liberals lead the NDP & Conservatives in BC, with 37% to the NDP at 30% and the Conservatives 21%.

The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and Saskatchewan, leading the Liberals and NDP by nearly 30 points in both provinces.

In Manitoba, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 44% to 31%, while in Ontario, the Liberals have a narrow lead, with 36% to the Conservatives at 34%. That is within the margin-of-error.

In Quebec, the Bloc and Liberals are tied at 31%, with the Conservatives in third with 17%.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 39%, while the Conservatives are at 30%.

While most Canadians still have yet to form an impression of Erin O’Toole, 21% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, while 19% have a negative impression. The number of people with a negative impression has dropped from 22%, while the number with a positive impression rose from 14%.

Notably, O’Toole’s numbers improved most in Ontario, where the number of people with a positive impression went from 11% to 21%. That is an early indication that O’Toole could do well in Ontario, a region that is key for the Conservatives to be able to defeat the Liberals.

So far, O’Toole is off to a strong start as CPC leader.

Spencer Fernando

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With the now “drug cartel” lieberals offering to hand out free “safer” opioids for the GTA’s addicts, I bet the lieberals will do OK there again. By de-funding the police, supporting legalizing the illegal guns and gangs to police the area and lefties seeming to support this, surely this will bring the overpriced housing market down and make the clean family living people leave the area faster than they are already making lots of housing available for all the human trafficking going on and really impressing all the new immigration that always wants to be in that area. It has… Read more »


Unfortunately or disturbingly, the NDP, particularly in my Riding here in BC, have a visceral deep hatred of Conservatives. This shows up at every election where radical fascist NDP supporters travel around at night and destroy or deface Conservative candidate signs. Nothing is ever done despite thousands of dollars of vandalism. A person was found with trashed signs after the last election, but he made veiled threats of violence and no charges were made.

Richard E Webber

The problem for Erin is the GTA. It is a bastion of rabid liberal/NDP voters. Southwestern Ontario (where I live) will swing CPC with the exception of Windsor and KWaterloo. I don’t know how anyone can break the liberal hold in the GTA, and worse the francaphone vote in PQ. Then there is Atlantic Canada, who it appears are continually looking to Trudeau for a handout. Tough slogging ahead. We all can do our part in convincing recalitrant voters to consider Erin.