Conservatives Extend Lead Over Liberals

InsightSpencerFernando

The CPC is showing much more strength in public opinion surveys since Pierre Poilievre became party leader.

A new Nanos survey shows the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives with a significant lead over the Trudeau Liberals.

According to the poll – conducted on January 12th – the Conservatives hold an 8 point lead over the Liberals nationally.

The CPC has 36%, compared to the Liberals at 28%.

The CPC is up 2 points compared to their 2021 election performance, while the Liberals are down 5 points.

The NDP is at 21%, up 3 points from 2021, while the Bloc is at 7, down 1 point from 2021.

The Greens are up 4 points and now sit at 6%, while the PPC has fallen to just 2%, having lost more than half their support (-3 points) since 2021.

There has also been a significant shift in Ontario, with the CPC opening up a significant lead:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1615703052589088769

Liberals & PPC voters moving to the Conservatives?

At first glance, it would seem absurd to think that both former Liberal voters and PPC voters are moving to the Conservatives.

However, considering that the Conservatives won 39% of the vote in 2011, it makes sense that a portion of those who voted Liberal & PPC in 2021 were disaffected former Conservatives.

And now, with Canada increasingly divided and the Canadian People struggling financially, combined with a CPC leader that is campaigning on the kind of fiscal responsibility and defence of individual freedom that many felt was lacking from the CPC before, it makes sense that fiscal Liberals and demoralized Conservatives who voted PPC last time would return to the CPC fold.

It’s not just the Nanos survey showing the CPC stronger under Poilievre. Nanos, Abacus, Mainstreet, and Leger as you can see below:

“Federal Polling Leads Compared:

Start 2023:
Nanos (Jan 12) – CPC +8
Abacus (Jan 16) – CPC +4
Mainstreet (Dec 8) – CPC +4
Leger (Dec 11) – CPC +3

Start 2022:
Nanos (Jan 21, ’22) – CPC +1
Mainstreet (Jan 23, ’22) – Tied
Abacus (Jan 12, ’22) – LPC +2
Leger (Jan 23, ’22) – LPC +3″

So, while no party ever has a perfect political strategy, the CPC is clearly on the right track and has the Liberals on the defensive.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – YouTube

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