The Liberals are now struggling to retain the support of those who voted Liberal in 2021.
A new Angus Reid poll shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals by eight points nationwide.
According to the survey, 37% of Canadians would vote Conservative if an election were held today. 29% would vote Liberal, while 20% would vote NDP.
This represents a 2 point gain for the Conservatives since the last Angus Reid poll.
Here are the regional numbers:
BC – Conservatives 38%, NDP 28%, Liberals 22%
Alberta – Conservatives 60%, NDP 22%, Liberals 15%
Saskatchewan – Conservatives 60%, NDP 21%, Liberals 12%
Manitoba – Conservatives 42%, NDP 28%, Liberals 25%
Ontario – Conservatives 38%, Liberals 35%, NDP 19%
Quebec – Bloc 36%, Liberals 27%, Conservatives 19%
New Brunswick – Liberals 40%, Conservatives 39%, NDP 13%
Nova Scotia – Liberals 42%, Conservatives 31%, NDP 22%
Newfoundland & Labrador – Liberals 43%, Conservatives 40%, NDP 15%
Liberals losing hold over 2021 supporters
The Liberals lost the popular vote in 2021, just as they did in 2019. And now, they are even losing the support of many of their 2021 voters.
Of those who say they voted Liberal in 2021, just 67% say they are still voting Liberal. 15% now say they are voting NDP, 7% say they are undecided, 5% say they are voting Conservative, and 6% say they’re voting for another party.
The Conservatives fare much better, with 84% of 2021 Conservative voters sticking with the party, while 80% of Bloc voters are staying put. The NDP is retaining 70% of their 2021 supporters.
Failed economic policies have Canadians looking for alternatives
When asked which issues mattered the most, 63% picked the cost of living/inflation, while 46% picked healthcare (people could pick their top three). In third place was housing affordability, at 30%, which is closely linked to the cost of living issue.
This is clearly having an impact on voting intentions.
The survey put people into four categories based on how they described their state of economic stress. Among those who said they were “struggling,” the Conservatives lead the Liberals 51% to 18%.
Among those who say they are “uncomfortable,” the Conservatives lead with 38% to the Liberals at 25%.
Among those who say they are “comfortable,” the Liberals lead with 35%, ahead of the Conservatives at 29%.
And among those who say they are “thriving,” 39% intend to vote Liberal while 23% intend to vote Conservative.
The problem for the Liberals is that fewer Canadians are “thriving” these days.
Liberal economic policies have discouraged investment, driven up inflation, pushed more money into the already insane housing market, and taken more and more money out of our pockets. As things get worse on their watch, the Liberals can’t pretend to be passive observers of the economic struggles of Canadians, because more and more Canadians are realizing the Liberals are a key cause of those struggles.
And with Pierre Poilievre articulating an economic vision diametrically opposed to Justin Trudeau’s failed policies, it makes sense that more Canadians are looking to vote Conservative.
Spencer Fernando
