2% of GDP on defence is the bare minimum. We need to do more.
Canada has consistently fallen short of our NATO commitments.
Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this wasn’t considered much of a political or security liability.
Many leaders who are now strongly in support of NATO – like French President Emmanuel Macron – had criticized the organization in years past.
If war in Europe was truly a thing of the past – as many thought – did we really need large defence budgets and huge defensive alliances?
Well, Russia’s brutal and unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 escalated the attack Russia had been waging against Ukraine since 2014, and made it beyond obvious that the Western world could ill afford to be weak and naive.
The existence of NATO has been completely vindicated, with the alliance even drawing in new members like Finland and Sweden (with all NATO members approving Sweden’s membership as of today).
Because of NATO, democratic nations like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland know that they won’t be left alone to face Russia’s brutal aggression.
And that’s why Russia hates NATO.
It’s not about ‘warmongering,’ since NATO is a defensive alliance.
It’s not about being ‘surrounded by NATO,’ since Russia has more borders with NATO countries than they did before they invaded Ukraine, and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he is motivated by restoring the Russian empire/USSR rather than some fake concern about ‘NATO encroachment.’
No, Russia hates NATO because NATO makes it far more difficult for Russia to invade other nations.
Remember, Putin is the warmonger. Putin is the aggressor.
NATO is the force for deterrence, liberty, and peace.
Seeing the horrific suffering Russia’s invasion has inflicted on Ukraine, and seeing how determined Ukrainians are in their desire to have what we in Canada take for granted (the protection of a defensive alliance, peace with our neighbours, and freedom), our confidence in NATO should be higher than ever.
More than just a succesful alliance, NATO should be seen as an example for the world. Were NATO to grow to include countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and perhaps even India and democratic nations in Africa, the world would be one step closer to true peace – a global military alliance that could greatly reduce the risk of war and help enable humanity to work together to focus on space exploration and expanding into the solar system.
But before any hopeful vision of the future can be considered, we must address the here and now.
And the here and now is the need for Canada to finally live up to our NATO commitments.
Currently, Canada spends about 1.3% of our GDP on the military.
That’s far short of the NATO 2% minimum which we promised to hit years ago.
And it’s even worse than that, given how the government changed the way defence spending is calcuated to loop in already existing spending promises and artificially inflate the number.
Yet, at a time when many of our allies are starting to take defence spending seriously, Canada remains the only NATO country without even a plan to hit the 2% minimum:
“Canada is the only NATO member without a plan or a timeline to reach the alliance’s target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence, according to the U.S. ambassador to NATO.
Julianne Smith told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos in an interview airing Sunday that she “absolutely” expects Canada to reach the spending goal, and that the lack of a plan or timeline to do so “lacks the commitment” allies want to see.
NATO members signed on more than a decade ago to each spend at least two per cent of their GDP on defence.”
Speaking in Poland, Justin Trudeau was questioned about Canada falling short, and noted that Poland has significantly increased their military spending, and said Canada will as well:
“I recognize Poland stepping up significantly in its own military spending, but so will Canada,” said PM Justin Trudeau in joint news conference with Polish counterpart Donald Tusk in Warsaw re: calls for NATO allies to meet defence spending target of 2 per cent.”
"I recognize Poland stepping up significantly in its own military spending, but so will Canada," said PM Justin Trudeau in joint news conference with Polish counterpart Donald Tusk in Warsaw re: calls for NATO allies to meet defence spending target of 2 per cent.
#cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/tbjDBYIepa— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) February 26, 2024
The problem is that the words don’t match the actions.
Poland is spending 3.9% of their GDP on the military, nearly double the NATO minimum.
Meanwhile, the Canadian government recently cut $1 billion from the military budget, then tried to claim it wasn’t a cut:
“The country’s top soldier and outside experts say that finding almost $1 billion in savings in the Department of National Defence budget will affect the Armed Forces’ capabilities, although the defence minister insisted Friday the budget is not being cut.
Deputy minister Bill Matthews told MPs on the House of Commons defence committee that the department is identifying “proposals for spending reductions” that total more than $900 million over four years, while trying to minimize the impact on military readiness.”
Not only is our military spending falling far short of the minimum, but our military industrial complex has almost completely withered away.
We only have three days of ammunition, again far short of the NATO minimum expectation of members (30 days).
This not only leaves us largely undefended, but it also makes us an unreliable ally at a time when we can ill afford to be the weak link in the defence of the free world.
If the globe is plunged into a large-scale conflict, we will be called upon to help our allies, and our allies will be called upon to help us. All NATO countries will be in it together, and one country being weak will make the whole alliance weaker.
And so, it is time for us to start pulling our weight.
$30 billion
This is where things get tough for people.
Nobody really wants to admit it, but the fact is that we need to be spending $30 billion more per year to strengthen our defences – at minimum.
An extra $25 billion would get us to a little over 2%, while another $5 billion could be used to rapidly ramp up $155 mm artillery shell production (both to give Ukraine what it needs to win and replenish our own ammunition stocks), combat drone production (for Ukraine & Canada), and to begin some early investments into expanding military research & development.
Now, when people hear this, they will often say that Canada can’t afford it.
But that isn’t true.
Consider the following.
The Liberal government projects a $40 billion deficit for this fiscal year.
Yet, even modest spending discipline (far less than what the Chretien government did to get the deficit under control) could generate a surplus in just two years:
“Although the government projects that deficits will continue for the foreseeable future, according to a new study published by the Fraser Institute, with relatively modest spending restraint the government can balance the budget within one to two years.
For example, if the government reduced program spending by 4.3 per cent between 2024 and 2025 it could balance the budget within one year. The following year, the government could resume increasing spending and still run an $8.2 billion surplus. Alternatively, the government could balance the budget in 2026/27 by slowing annual spending growth to only 0.3 per cent for two years.
Again, these two scenarios represent relatively modest spending restraint. Indeed, to balance the federal budget in the 1990s, the Chrétien Liberals reduced program spending by 9.7 per cent over two years—significantly more than the spending adjustment proposed in either scenario here.”
Another way to look at this is that combining fiscal restraint with a large military build up could still leave Canada with a much lower budget deficit in two years than we have now.
Additionally, increased artillery shell production, increased drone production, increased research & development funding, as well as expanded recruitment, increased pay for military personnel, and increased support for veterans will all flow back into the economy and boost our GDP and would be much more efficient than the kinds of spending increases we have seen under the Liberals (vastly expanding the federal bureacracy without any increase in service quality).
So, this would not be easy, but neither would it be impossible.
Canada has the the economic potential, the alliances, the tech sector, the energy sector, the military history, and a small but strong core military personnel base to build on.
All that is missing is the will.
We must accept that we don’t live in a time of peace.
Aggressive dictators like Vladimir Putin will not be dissuaded by appeasement or Western weakness. They will only be dissuaded by providing Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, and by the ongoing strengthening of NATO.
Canada has the potential to be one of the strongest contributors to NATO, and it’s time for us to finally live up to that potential and live up to our NATO commitments.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
