Canada’s Security Requires a Bold Defence Buildup Now.
As a growing number of Canadians wake up to the need for a robust national defence, our country is going to have to shed many self-limiting beliefs that have held us back in the past.
Among those beliefs are the idea that Canada is a ‘peacekeeping country’ or that building up a powerful military is somehow ‘un-Canadian.’
Both of those ideas are false. Canada has participated in many large-scale wars, including WW1, WW2, and the Korean War.
Canada also participated in the war in Afghanistan alongside the United States, the United Kingdom, and other close allies.
Canada has also repeatedly shown the ability to build up a large military industry that produces significant quantities of weapons.
After WW2, Canada had the world’s third-largest navy, and our army was massive with over 730,000 people in uniform.
We have shown ourselves to be capable of great things when we put our mind to it, and military strength is no exception, this demonstrates that a powerful military is indeed quite Canadian.
Once we move beyond those initial limiting beliefs, we run up against the most oft-cited objection to a large-scale Canadian military buildup.
The cost.
Often, people will say that Canada is out of money or that we can’t afford to build up the military since we have a large budget deficit. The idea is supposedly that Canada can’t really invest in the military until we balance the budget, and that any new military spending can only happen if it’s offset by cuts elsewhere.
Now, while I would fully support reducing the bloated federal budget to help build up the military, it is simply incorrect to say that Canada ‘can’t afford’ to run deficits to finance a military expansion.
To get a sense of why deficit spending is a quite viable way for Canada to rapidly strengthen our national defences, let’s look at one of our NATO allies, Poland.
Poland has a population of about 37 million people, about 4 million less than Canada.
Their per capita GDP is about $22,000, compared to Canada at about $53,000.
Poland’s current budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is 5.1%.
Canada’s current budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 1.6%.
Poland’s military spending as a percentage of its GDP is 4% and is projected to reach 4.7% in 2025.
Canada’s military spending as a percentage of GDP is 1.29% and is projected to reach 1.49% in 2025.
Were Canada to match Poland’s military spending as a percentage of GDP in 2025, that would increase our military budget from $46.7 billion to just under $150 billion.
This would make Canada the fourth or fifth largest military spender in the world.
For that amount of money, we could acquire significant capabilities. For example, if we focused on building a massive air force, a moderate-sized but extremely well-equipped army, and a modernized navy along with mass-producing drones, we could be one of the world’s pre-eminent military powers.
What this means is that Canada has immense unused military potential. If we went all-in on a military expansion, we could not only ensure our national security, but also make a powerful contribution to supporting our allies like the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, and our other NATO partners. This would also provide a massive boost to domestic military production, meaning we could re-equip our forces, stockpile weapons and ammunition, and provide more aid to Ukraine all at the same time.
And of all the G7 countries, Canada has the most fiscal room, meaning such a large build-up is something we could manage.
Were we not quite as far, increasing spending to 2/3rds Poland’s percentage of GDP total rather than matching it, our military budget would still be quite substantial at just under $100 billion. This would still provide us with robust capabilities.
And since military purchases under an expansion of that kind would go largely to defence contractors in the United States and European Union, our allies would be pleased. Of course, we would also have to ensure that significant portions of the money went to Canadian companies where applicable – particularly in starting up a Canadian-owned military drone industry.
After all, many of those allies, including France, the U.K., Germany, the U.S., and the aforementioned Poland are all spending over 2% of GDP on their militaries even as many of them run large budget deficits.
Nothing is stopping Canada from doing the same, aside from our limiting mindset.
Running large deficits to finance a military buildup is also the most viable solution in the short term. It’s unrealistic to think that an incoming government would be able to immediately cut $40-80 billion in spending. And considering the likely next Conservative government will be cutting taxes, the budget cuts necessary to ‘pay for’ a military buildup would be even less feasible.
This will upset some fiscal conservatives, and understandably so. I don’t love the idea of running big deficits. But if there was ever a reason to do so, it would be now. The entire point of government borrowing should be to enable a country to address a serious and potentially existential danger quickly.
Decades of military underfunding and growing threats to our sovereignty are an existential danger for Canada. The only way to address that danger is to rapidly build up our military. And rapidly building up our military requires a significant amount of spending. There’s no ‘trick’ or ‘secret’ to get around that. It’s simply reality. We neglected our national defence for far too long, and the price way to pay for that is having to spend immense sums in a short amount of time to ensure we are protected.
Would it have been better if Canada took our national defence seriously 20 years ago, 15 years ago, 10 years ago or 5 years ago?
Of course.
But we didn’t, so here we are.
This is a time of chaos and change.
Old assurances are no longer solid.
Security requires real power, not a signed piece of paper.
If we want Canada to survive and thrive for decades and centuries, we need to invest in a massive military build-up.
Spencer Fernando
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