Canada faces existential challenges, and we all need to adapt.
In a recent article, respected columnist Warren Kinsella wrote about the danger of “fighting the last war,” in reference to Canada’s rapidly changing political landscape amid escalating threats from the United States.
Here’s how he concluded the article, which is worth reading in full:
“Canadian Conservatives pride themselves on being closer to the ground than their pointed-head Liberal elite opponents, and there’s quite a bit of truth to that. So, hustle down to your local Tim’s, Tories, and listen to what the Unapologetically Canadian Canadians are saying.
I did. Did some research at my local coffee shop this week. Here’s what one old guy said to us:
“The biggest threat to this country in my lifetime is Trump,” he said. “Who the hell is speaking for Canada when we are under attack?”
Time for a change in strategy, Tories. The world ain’t waiting for y’all to keep up.”
Kinsella makes some important points here.
The next election is unlikely to be about what any party wants it to be.
The Liberals want the election to be about ‘Conservative cuts,’ a message that fell flat.
The NDP want the election to be about the NDP taking on ‘Liberal/Conservative elites’ a message that has also fallen flat given Singh’s lack of political instincts and the fact that he propped the Liberals up for years.
And the Conservatives want the election to be about the carbon tax. That message didn’t fall flat. Rather, it was so successful that any likely new Liberal leader would probably concede on the carbon tax from the start.
But since the Conservatives have largely won the carbon tax argument, and since the threat from the United States is an unprecedented challenge that will suck up all attention and focus, the next election will be focused on existential issues for our nation.
The next election will be a Canadian sovereignty and national security election.
Our biggest challenge now isn’t getting tax policy right (though that is still quite important). Instead, our main challenge is rapidly rebuilding our national defence, diversifying our exports, and deepening ties to other democratic allies to offset a less reliable United States.
This presents real challenges for each party.
Rebuilding the military is something the Conservatives have been talking about for some time. However, a real rebuild of the CAF will require massive spending (we should be spending $40 billion more per year on the CAF at minimum). While fiscal restraint could offset some of that cost, US tariffs could mean that Canada faces the prospect of undertaking a massive CAF rebuild amid a severe economic downturn. That means we must be prepared to run significant deficits.
Remember, we need to look at this like the crisis it is. These aren’t normal times. Canada faces an economic threat comparable to the 2008-2009 global economic crisis and the economic damage caused by COVID/COVID lockdowns.
If we get hit by 25% tariffs imposed by a U.S. Administration that could be intent on breaking Canada and bullying us into submission, we will need to undertake massive deficit spending to stimulate our economy and keep people employed. A military buildup, combined with an emergency program to rush the construction of pipelines to the East & West coast to get our oil & gas to other nations and reduce our dependence on the U.S. will be essential. But it will be costly.
That would be a tough pill for some Conservatives to swallow, but there is no way a future government could conceivable try to impose austerity and keep military spending low amid U.S. tariffs and a rapidly escalating threat from authoritarian states like China and Russia.
But a rapidly changing world will also be tough for the other parties to handle.
The Liberals have shown themselves unwilling to invest in our military to hit the NATO 2% target, and have prioritized radical environmental policy over supporting the Canadian energy sector, which has left us far too dependent on the U.S. for both defence and in terms of energy exports. As a result, the Liberals will struggle to have any credibility here. This is very important to remember amid what seems like a ‘Carney Coronation’ for the Liberals. Carney – and many of those backing him – were big supporters of the anti-energy ideas that have left Canada in such a vulnerable position. Their failure contributed to Canada looking ripe for the picking.
For the NDP, there is likely to be little support for a huge military buildup, nor will there be support for ramping up the Canadian energy sector. The NDP would be willing to spend big to stimulate the economy, but NDP-style stimulus would likely be directed towards expanding the bureaucracy and increasing social program spending, rather than towards a military & infrastructure expansion. Thus, Canada would get much higher debt and deficits without any economic & security benefits. That would make us even more vulnerable and dependent on the U.S.
When we take this all in, the Conservatives still seem best poised to react to this rapidly changing political landscape.
They have a good economic plan – cut taxes to make Canada more competitive with the U.S. – they have high-level foreign-policy-focused politicians like James Bezan, Garnett Genuis, Shuv Majumdar, Michelle Rempel Garner, Michael Chong, and others who support a strong national defence and principled foreign policy, and they have the widest base of public support to rely upon at a time when Canada is going to potentially face some brutal challenges that will require public unity and resolve.
And most importantly, they are led by someone who has a deep understanding of economics and trade and who can leverage that understanding to talk tough to the Americans in a measured and fact-based way, as you can see in the video below:
“Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, hit back at Trump:
“I’d remind our American friends that they benefit from our affordable, reliable energy. And the alternative is Venezuela, Iran & other foreign dictatorships…””
If the Conservatives can meld their pro-national defence, pro-energy perspective with strong Canadian patriotism and a willingness to accept that deficits may be necessary to build up our military and infrastructure at a time of crisis, they will be far better equipped than the NDP or Liberals to respond to the dark challenges facing our country and help Canada emerge as a more resilient and independent nation that can prosper in the years and decades to come.
Spencer Fernando
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