Global Oil & Gas Demand Will Keep Rising For Some Time. Canada Can Either Profit From This, Or Watch Foreign Competitors Benefit

Our increasingly naïve and virtue-signalling obsessed approach to the energy sector does nothing except hurt our own prosperity.

There are many people who have an interesting in convincing you that the era of oil & gas is over.

Politicians like Justin Trudeau & Jagmeet Singh love to demonize the oil & gas sector – particularly in Alberta – in an effort to gain votes elsewhere.

And many international institutions like the United Nations are regularly campaigning against the oil & gas sector, and blaming it for all the world’s problems.

As a result, many are surprise to see that – contrary to claims that the industry is dead – oil and gas production is projected to continue increasing for a significant amount of time.

According to the International Energy Agency, world oil demand will rise from a projected 96.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2021, to 104.1 mb/d by 2026.

McKinsey, in a report from February 26, 2021, says “38 MMb/d of new oil drilling is needed to meet demand by 2040.”

They further add, “Even in an accelerated energy-transition scenario, we see need for new oil drilling by 2040.”

They project the 2020 oil supply stack of 92.3 MMb/d to rise to 100.8 MMb/d by 2040, with a peak around in 2029.

Goldman Sachs predicts oil and gas demand will peak after 2030.

OPEC predicts oil & gas demand will peak around 2040.

All of this shows that the idea the oil industry is ‘dead’ is completely absurd and factually incorrect.

Oil & gas is going to continue providing a huge percentage of the world’s energy, for quite a long-time.

Remember, even if the above predictions of peak demand are true, a whole lot of oil & gas is going to continue being used for decades and decades to come.

And, what if those predictions are wrong?

As noted in a Forbes article, many people have made a rapid switch from being worried about peak oil supply, to now talking about peak oil demand:

“The fact that many who believed in peak oil supply now wholeheartedly support the imminence of peak oil demand doesn’t mean peak oil demand predictions should be discarded as being as fallacious as peak oil supply arguments were, but it does show that there are many credulous people out there who hop on the fashionable topic of the day. Many of those who wrote about peak oil supply knew little or nothing about the subject but liked the message and found supporting views on the internet (which is now considered research by all too many people). The same is true of peak oil demand.”

The article further notes similar past discussion of ‘peak oil demand.’

“Worthy of note: oil demand has peaked before, as the figure shows, during periods of high oil prices, recession, or both. Peak oil supply advocates regularly argued that any peak in supply, even for a few months, represented the permanent peak, never explaining why any given fluctuation different from all preceding ones. Peak oil websites exulted in every drop in Saudi production as heralding confirmation of the 2005 book “Twilight in the Desert” which argued Saudi production was on the verge of collapse. Numerous posts on, a peak oil website, insisted, for example “Saudi Arabian oil production is now in decline…Declines are rather unlikely to be arrested, and may well accelerate.”  (That was in 2007.)”

The following chart is included to show previous ‘peaks’:

Global oil demand
Repeated World Oil Demand Peaks (tb/d) – Forbes column

So, there is no way to be sure we will actually reach a ‘peak,’ despite what some are predicting.

Canadian oil is better for the environment

Any political movement based on a naïve outlook ends up doing lots of damage, because it simply doesn’t comport with reality.

Sure, Canada can ruin our energy sector and shut down production, but that won’t change the global demand for oil.

It will simply mean that Canadians don’t profit from that oil & gas demand, and that foreign countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria, Iran, and more profit instead.

They win, we lose.

They get richer, we get poorer.

And of course, the deepest irony here is that the more Canada loses market share to foreign countries, the worse it is for the environment and for labour conditions.

Canada has far better labour standards, and far better environmental standards than most countries, particularly better than our competitors in the oil & gas market.

If we don’t fill the demand, then they will.

It’s that simple.

What happened to wanting to compete?

The final point I’ll make here is that it is appalling how so many people in this country just want to give up on the oil & gas sector, and seemingly have zero spirit of competition.

Why should we give up billions and billions of dollars – that we could use to lower taxes, strengthen our military, build more hospitals, end boil water advisories, fix roads & infrastructure, and more – and let other countries get that money instead?

What happened to fighting for our own interests as a nation and trying to benefit our people?

Shouldn’t we want Canadians to be as rich and prosperous as possible?

We could even put a portion of the wealth generated from the oil & gas sector into a climate adaptation fund, using profit now to help our country adapt and thrive in the future?

The total lack of fighting spirit many people exhibit in this country is a serious problem, as it means we will be left behind as other countries prosper at our expense.

We should be grateful for the fact that Canada has abundant oil & natural gas resources.

We should be praising our energy sector workers for the fact that they do an incredibly difficult job and make our entire country wealthier and more prosperous through their efforts.

Instead, our ungrateful and pathetic pandering ‘leaders’ treat the oil & gas sector as something to be feared and demonized, dividing our nation and entrenching an attitude that limits our future wealth and potential.

If this country remains so naïve as to throw away the tremendous gift we’ve been given in terms of our energy sector, then our foreign competitors deserve to gain the market share we so foolishly squander.

Spencer Fernando


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