Nearly half of all Conservatives are less likely to vote CPC if Charest is the leader. Meanwhile, core Liberal voters are unlikely to abandon the cultlike organization around Trudeau.
The Charest campaign continues to claim that their candidate is a ‘unifier,’ in contrast to Pierre Poilievre’s supposed ‘divisiveness’.
Yet, all evidence points to the contrary.
And a new survey by Angus Reid shows that a Charest win in the leadership race could tear the CPC apart.
According to the survey, a shocking 47% of past CPC voters say they would be less likely to vote Conservative if Charest was the leader.
Just 18% said they would be more likely to do so.
Consider the implications of this:
Under Charest, the CPC could lose almost half of their voters, facing a massive wipeout.
Further, only 24% of Liberals say they would be more likely to vote CPC if Charest was the leader. Even if all of those voters switched – which is unlikely – the CPC would still be so far behind due to the loss of their own voters that they would be decimated.
Meanwhile, the numbers for Poilievre are quite different.
57% of past CPC voters say they would be more likely to vote for a Poilievre-led CPC, while just 18% say they would be less likely.
Poilievre also does better among past Bloc voters and past PPC voters than Charest.
Poilievre has stronger widespread appeal
Much of the analysis of the CPC leadership race by the establishment press conveniently ignores the fact that Conservative voters exist.
They talk as if CPC voters don’t matter, and that winning over Trudeau supporters is the only way to win.
This ignores the fact that motivation, turnout, and disillusionment all play a role in the composition of the electorate. It also ignores the fact that if you can’t hold your own party together, you have no chance of winning everything.
For the CPC to win the next election, they will need strong support from their own base first and foremost, and Poilievre has that.
Charest does not.
And, when considering the Canadian electorate as a whole, Poilievre again shows stronger appeal than Charest.
26% of Canadians say they would be more likely to vote for a Poilievre led CPC, while 37% say they would be less likely.
For Charest, just 17% say they would be more likely, while 34% say they would be less likely.
Charest is thus at -17, while Poilievre is at -11.
But for Charest, it gets even worse.
Charest’s unreliable ‘potential’ supporters
When a candidate shows strong support among their own party base, that can generally be relied upon.
Those who have voted Conservative in the past are likely to do so in the future, if they support their party leader.
But relying upon those who voted Liberal in the last election to switch from Trudeau while losing your own base is incredibly reckless.
The survey shows that 84% of those who voted Liberal in 2021 still approve of Justin Trudeau.
Through all of the corruption, inflation, damage to our economy, and rank incompetence, most Liberal voters are sticking with Trudeau. Do we really think that they are going to switch to Jean Charest?
Further, if Charest’s own party is divided and falling apart under his leadership, who would switch to something so dysfunctional?
Charest is appealing to a Canada that doesn’t really exist
The fact is, Charest’s campaign appears aimed at a version of Canada that doesn’t actually exist.
The idea that there is a vast group of Canadians who simultaneously hate Trudeau while wanting Liberal-lite policies simply doesn’t match up with reality.
Those who oppose Trudeau want a clean break from his policies, while those who support Trudeau generally also support big-government and are glad to look the other way amid all of his scandals.
They aren’t waiting for Charest to be their political ‘saviour,’ and Charest’s attempts to appeal to them would only tear the CPC apart.
To win, the CPC will need to consolidate and motivate their base, while winning over Canadians who have often been outside of the political process but are motivated by the economic damage the Liberals are inflicting upon our nation.
That’s a key reason that Poilievre is both more popular among the CPC and among the general public at large.
Once again, the fact remains:
In the CPC leadership race Pierre Poilievre is the unifying candidate, while Charest is the one who risks the complete tearing apart of the Conservative Party.
Spencer Fernando
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