Majority of Canadians see cost-of-living as main national issue.
A new Angus Reid survey is the latest to show the Poilievre-led CPC leading the Trudeau Liberals.
Nationally, the Conservatives have 37% support, with the Liberals trailing at 30%.
The NDP is at 30%, while the Bloc is at 7%.
The PPC has fallen to 1%, demonstrating that the Poilievre-led CPC is consolidating the centre-right vote in the country.
Since the March 2022
Regional breakdown
The Conservatives lead in most regions of the country:
BC – Conservatives 36%, Liberals 29%, NDP 27%
Alberta – Conservatives 55%, NDP 24%, Liberals 15%
Saskatchewan – Conservatives 61%, NDP 23%, Liberals 11%
Manitoba – Conservatives 43%, NDP 28%, Liberals 25%
Ontario – Conservatives 39%, Liberals 36%, NDP 20%
Quebec – Liberals 30%, Bloc 29%, Conservatives 23%, NDP 15%
New Brunswick – Liberals 40%, Conservatives 37%, NDP 16%
Nova Scotia – Liberals 39%, Conservatives 34%, NDP 23%,
Newfoundland – Liberals 41%, Conservatives 40%, NDP 14%
Divide over who can best handle key issues
60% of Canadians say the rising cost-of-living is the top-issue in the country (people could pick up to three). 45% said healthcare. 28% said climate change. 27% said housing affordability. 21% picked the economy.
That’s good news for Pierre Poilievre, because he leads Trudeau on who is seen as best at dealing with the cost-of-living.
Poilievre leads Trudeau 39% – 31% on that issue, and also leads on dealing with the federal deficit 44%-28% and the economy 40% – 33%.
Trudeau leads Poilievre on issues lower down Canadians’ list of concerns, besting Poilievre on Canada’s place on the world stage 45% – 33%, national unity 38% – 31%, healthcare 39% – 30%, Canada’s social safety net 44% – 28%, and climate change 44% – 22%.
This sets the stage for what we are going to see moving forward, with Poilievre attempting to keep the focus on the cost-of-living and the economy, while the Liberals will go after Poilievre on climate change and social program spending, and the usual unhinged attacks on supposed ‘extremism.’
Poilievre vs Trudeau approval
On the surface, the approval numbers for Poilievre and Trudeau are similar.
35% approve of Poilievre, vs 51% who disapprove.
40% approve of Trudeau, vs 56% who disapprove.
However, a closer look at the numbers reveals some interesting differences.
18% of Canadians have a very favourable view of Poilievre, compared to just 9% who strongly approve of Trudeau.
17% somewhat approve of Poilievre, while 31% somewhat approve of Trudeau.
Thus, Poilievre has a more solid base of core supporters, and Trudeau is currently more reliant upon voters who are lukewarm towards him.
37% have a strongly unfavourable view of Poilievre, while 39% strongly disapprove of Trudeau.
This is why the battle to define Poilievre will be so fundamental. Poilievre has more room to grow than Trudeau, as Trudeau is now locked-in to being a permanently divisive figure.
Trudeau also has more room to fall than Poilievre, as Trudeau’s support base is more heavily comprised of people who only somewhat support him.
So, the Liberals will seek to deepen Poilievre’s negatives through relentless attacks, while scaring NDP voters into switching to the Liberals to stop the ‘dangerous’ Conservatives.
But all of this serves to demonstrate how much the Liberals have failed. Lacking a record of achievement, and with Canada economically and militarily bereft in a dangerous world, all the Liberals have left is fearmongering about their opponents.
Spencer Fernando
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